人口减少是坏事吗？

人口问题向来是各种英语考试阅读理解的热点，今天偶然看到的一篇比较有代表性，试着译出来了。本文将揭示人口减少的原因，对社会经济、政治和人们生活的影响。人口减少，对于我们而言，到底是好是坏呢？

New Roman'">During the second half of the 20th century, the global population explosion was the big demographic bogey. Robert McNamara, president of the President of the World Bank of in the 1970s, compared the threat of unmanageable population pressures with the danger of nuclear war. Now that worry has evaporated, and this century is spooking itself with the opposite fear: the onset of demographic decline.

20世纪下半页，全球人口在爆炸是人口统计学推断出来的最大恶梦。世界银行20世纪70年代主席罗伯特迈克纳马拉，曾把无节制增长的人口压力的危害与核战争相提并论。现在，这种忧虑已经烟消云散了，本世纪所面临的是相反的恐惧，人口统计学的数据的下滑。

The shrinkage of Russia and eastern Europe is familiar, though not perhaps the scale of it: Russia’s population is expected to fall by 22% between 2005 and 2050, Ukraine’s by a staggering 43%. Now the phenomenon is creeping into the rich world: Japan has started to shrink and others, such as Italy and Germany, will soon follow. Even China’s population will be declining by the early 2030s, according to the UN, which projects that by 2050 populations will be lower than they are today in 50 countries.

对俄罗斯和东欧人口的减少，人们是熟悉的，但人们可能不知道其减少的程度：预计俄罗斯人口在2005年至2050年可能减少22%左右，乌克兰则减少43%。现在这个现象正在向一些富国蔓延，日本已经在开始减少，其他一些国家如意大利、德国也将步其后尘。甚至中国人口将从21世纪30年代开始下降，根据联合国预计，到2050年有50个国家的人口将比现在少。

 Demographic decline worries people because it is believe to go hand in hand with economic decline. At the extremes it may well be the result of economic factors: pessimism may depress the birth rate and push up rates of suicide and alcoholism. But, in the main , demographic decline is the consequence of the low fertility that generally goes with growing prosperity. In Japan, for instance, birth rates fell below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman in the mid-1970s and have been particularly low in the past 15 years.

人口的下降使人们担忧，因为人们认为这会引起经济的衰退。发展到极端时，这可能就是经济因素的结果：悲观主义思想可能会降低出生率和导致自杀和酗酒的大量产生。但，最主要的，人口的下降是由富裕生活带来的低生育率引起的。比如在日本，出生率低于20世纪70年代，当时的出生率是维持总量不变的正常替换率，即平均每个妇女生育2.1个孩子，而过去15年中，日本的生育率一直都特别低。

But if demographic decline is not generally a consequence of economic decline, surely is must be a cause? In a crude sense, yes. As populations shrink, GDP growth will slow. Some economies may even start to shrink, too. The result will be a loss of economic influence.

但如果人口下降不是经济衰退引起的，那么它反过来会不会引发经济衰退呢？残忍一点说，会。一国人口减少，GDP增长就会放缓，一些经济体也会开始衰退。这样的最终结果是会丧失经济影响力。

Government hate the idea of shrinking population because the absolute size of GDP matters for great-power status. The bigger the economy, the bigger the military, the greater the geopolitical clout: annual GDP estimates were first introduced in America in the 1940s as part of its war effort. Companies worry, too: they do not like the idea of their domestic markets shrinking. People should not mind, though. What matters for economic welfare is GDP per person.

政府最不希望看到人口减少，因为GDP的绝对总量决定着一国的实力。经济越强大，军事越强大，则地缘政治影响越大。20世纪40年代，美国首首先引用年均GDP，作为一项战争成果。公司企业也会忧虑，他们不希望看到国内市场日渐缩减。实际上人们不用担心，对人们经济福利产生影响的只是人均GDP.

People love to worry—maybe it’s a symptom of ageing populations—but the gloom surrounding population decline misses the main point. The new demographic that are causing populations to age and to shrink are something to celebrate. Humanity was once caught in the trap of high fertility and high mortality. Now it has escaped into the freedom of low fertility and low mortality. Women’s control over the number of children they have is an unqualified good—as is the average person’s enjoyment, in rich countries, of ten more years of life than they had in 1960. Politicians may fear the decline of their nations’ economic power, but people should celebrate the new demographics as heralding a golden age.

人们总是喜欢操心，或许这正是老龄化社会的一个特征。但这些有关人口下降的悲观的想法都没有抓住问题的核心。这种新的人口结构虽然导致了人口老龄化和人口减少，但却是值得庆幸的。人类曾一度陷入高出生率和高死亡率的双重困境。妇女可已控制自己生几个孩子，这绝对是件好事。在富裕国家，人们能多活10年，这也是人们乐意的好事。政治家可能担心国家经济的下降。而人们对于人口变化的新趋势应感到庆幸，这预示着黄金时代的到来。