欧洲央行加息防通货

FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank, spooked by soaring prices for food and fuel, raised interest rates on Thursday, joining several other central banks in battling a global eruption of inflation.

With the quarter-point increase, the central bank followed those in Sweden and Norway that raised rates this week, citing inflation. The Federal Reserve in the United States, where short-term interest rates are only half of those in Europe, has so far declined to join them.
The European Central Bank’s decision deepens a recent divergence in monetary policy on either side of the Atlantic, ending a long period when it tended to follow the course set by the Fed.
But the sharp rise in inflation has put Europe’s bank into a policy bind because it has been accompanied, in recent days, by evidence that the economy here is deteriorating much like that of the United States.
Manufacturing activity in the 15 countries that use the euro shrank in June for the first time in three years, according to a survey of European purchasing managers. In Spain and Ireland, where a collapse in housing prices has magnified the problems, there is a real risk of recession.
Still, the European Central Bank, hewing to its inflation-fighting mandate, pressed on with the expected increase, lifting the benchmark rate to 4.25 percent from 4 percent. Among other thing, it is intended as a warning to unions not to use higher inflation as a lever to demand hefty pay raises.
It was not clear, before an afternoon news conference chaired by the bank’s president, Jean-Claude Trichet, whether the increase would be a one-off gesture or the start of a cycle of tighter monetary policy.
Several economists said they doubted the bank could tighten much further, given the parlous economic situation.
“The E.C.B. is hiking at a time when confidence is plummeting,” said Thomas Mayer, the chief European economist of Deutsche Bank. “The question is, ‘what do you do when asset prices fall at the same time that consumer prices rise?’ The central bankers seem to have reached the end of the line.”
Indeed, the bank has come under intense political pressure in recent days not to tighten credit at such a fragile moment for Europe’s economy.
The French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, said higher rates would do little to stem the rising price of oil. Germany’s finance minister, Peer Steinbrück, warned that an increase could further depress growth.
The central bank, under Mr. Trichet, has steadfastly rebuffed efforts to influence its policy. But even within its 21-member governing council, the unhealthy combination of inflation and stagnation has opened a split — with inflation hawks calling for a rate increase, while the doves resisted it.
The hawks are led by Axel A. Weber, the president of Germany’s Bundesbank, which bequeathed its long tradition of inflation fighting to the European Central Bank. Germany is also an exception among major European countries, in that its economy is still expanding, even if more modestly lately.
“It’s clear that Weber convinced Trichet and the majority of the council to go for it,” Mr. Mayer said. “But the weakening growth numbers will lead the others to resist further rate increases.”
The position of the hawks was reinforced on Monday with new statistics that showed inflation in Europe rose to an annual rate of 4 percent in June, twice the ceiling set by the European Central Bank.
With oil prices continuing to surge — it traded at a new record of$145 a barrel in Asia on Thursday — some economists expect inflation to spike even higher in August, perhaps to 4.25 percent.
“There is a genuine question about what to do about inflation that is entirely driven by oil prices,” said Holger Schmieding, chief European economist at Bank of America in London. “One option is to let it filter through the system; the other option is to attack it now.”
In raising rates, even at a time of such uncertainty, the European Central Bank has opted for the latter.

Miu的译文：


译文: 欧洲央行加息防通货
法兰克福—欧洲中央银行近期受粮食价格及油价飞速上涨的困扰，星期四宣布加息，由此加入众央行行列共同抵御通货膨胀威胁。美国联邦储备短期利率一直都保持在欧洲一半的水平，现在也不得不上调到同样的位置。
      欧洲央行的这一举措进一步加深了大西洋两岸货币政策的差异，而不再紧跟联邦储备的步伐。
      但近期通货指数飞速上升，使欧洲银行陷入政策困扰，因为近几年来，越来越多的迹象表明，欧洲银行界正在与美国遭受同样的经济衰退。
      根据一份欧洲采购经理调查报告，今年6月份，15个欧元国家的制造业首次出现缩水。西班牙，爱尔兰出现房价下跌，使问题进一步严重化，出现经济萧条的可能性相当大。
      然而，欧洲中央银行还是一如既往地坚守抵制通货膨胀的立场，尽管通货指数上升如期而至，从4%跃升到4.25%。最重要的是，这等于在警告各工会不要利用通货膨胀为杠杆企图大幅提高薪酬。
      在今天下午银行总裁Jean-Claude Trichet出席新闻发布会以前，这种上涨是短暂的还是循环紧缩货币政策的开始还尚不清楚。
      多为经济学家表示，就现在危机的经济环境而言，对银行进一步紧缩的说法表示怀疑。
      德国银行的首席欧洲经济学家Thomas Mayer说：“信心大幅下降，欧洲央行加息。问题在于当资产价值下跌同物价上涨撞在一起时，你应该怎么办。欧洲央行的银行家似乎已无经别无选择。”
      确实如此，银行方面这些年来一直顶着巨大的压力，坚持不在欧洲经济如此脆弱的时候紧缩信贷。
      法国总统Nicolas Sarkozy认为高利息对抵制油价上涨并不能起到多大作用。德国经济部长Peer Steinbrück警告说加息反而有可能降低经济增长。
      央行在Trichet先生的带领下坚决抵制一切可能影响其政策的努力。但由于通货膨胀与经济之后同时出现带来的不良后果，有21人组成的央行理事会开始出现分歧—强硬派主张通过加息抵制通货膨胀，而主和派在反对。
      强硬派以德国Bundesban银行总裁 Axel A. Weber为首。欧洲央行继承了Bundesban银行对抗通货膨胀的悠久传统。而德国在整个欧洲范围内也总是例外，经济还保持增长，即便这种增长最近更加缓慢了些。
      Mayer先生表示：“Weber显然是说服了Trichet以及大部分理事会成员同意加息，但持续走软的增长数据会让其他成员抵制进一步加息。”
      由于星期一出的新数据表明6月欧洲通货膨行率上升到了年平均率4%，比欧洲央行设定的最高限度多出了两倍，强硬派更坚定了加息的信念。
      油价持续上涨—星期四亚洲没同创下了145美元的新记录—一些经济学家认为通货膨胀率8月还将再度攀升，可能达到4.25%。
      伦敦美国银行首席欧洲经济学家Holger Schmieding表示：“通货膨胀率完全受制于油价时，真的要好好想想对策，要么任其发展，要么坚决打击。”
      尽管不确定因素很多，但欧洲央行加息的举动表明了选择后者的立场。