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Want to better understand the crazy world of technology stocks? That requires having a grasp of something that can best be described as the curse of the ordinary.
That curse could mean that Facebook, which is already down by nearly 50 percent from its offering price to $19.05 on Friday, could drop even further.
It’s all about valuations.
Most efforts to judge the right stock market value for a company rely on profit forecasts. But earnings at young technology companies are harder to predict than at businesses using traditional approaches to generate earnings in other industries.
In times of optimism, that knowledge dearth can actually work to the advantage of technology companies. Executives fill that emptiness with promises of paradigm-breaking ways of doing business, prompting Wall Street analysts to project amazing profits.
Investors get excited and flock to their stock debuts. In short, it’s all about being seen as extraordinary.
That magic allowed Facebook to go public at a stock price that was an astronomical 100 times its earnings per share. Back in May, investors seemingly had little trouble believing that Facebook could entwine advertising into all interactions on its site and generate extraordinary revenue.
Indeed, each of the companies that have gone public in recent months has needed one main magical story. For Groupon, it was that the company had found a revolutionary marketing tool that was perfect for small businesses. The untapped market was theoretically huge.
确实，近几个月内每个公开发售股票的公司都需要一个主要传奇故事。对于 Groupon, 该公司已经找到了一个市场改革工具，对小公司可是说是完美。对尚未开发的市场是理论上的大难度性。
But the nightmare begins when investors stop believing in that central story. Earnings don’t have to be terrible, and they haven’t been at the hardest hit firms — Facebook, Groupon and Zynga, the online game company. The earnings just have to contain a few clues that the dream won’t be achieved.
但是噩梦开始了，当投资家们不再信任那个核心故事。收入不一定是恐怖的，起码在受灾最严重的公司不是这样-facebook, Groupon 和 Zynga, 网络游戏公司。 从收入上可以看出梦想终将不会实现。
Then, the transition from extraordinary to ordinary is brutal.
Groupon is down 75 percent from its initial public offering. The market now values it as if it were any old marketing company; its shares are trading at 12 times the earnings that analysts are projecting for 2013, according to data from Thomson Reuters.
This is a critical time for Facebook.
The faith level in the company is declining. Right now, Facebook is trading at 31 times the earnings that analysts are expecting for 2013. That’s not too expensive, but it’s far above Google’s 2013 price-to-earnings ratio of 14 times.
公司的信誉度正在下降。现在, facebook正在用分析家们预计的2013年股价以31倍收入价进行出售。 这并不是很贵了，但是比起谷歌2013年的市场股价收益率远远高出了14倍。
One reason investors have fled the stock is that Facebook’s second-quarter earnings showed few signs that it was close to achieving meteoric growth. “There have been almost no positive signals at Facebook in the past six months,” said Anup Srivastava, an assistant professor at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. He thinks Facebook shares should be worth about $12, based on his estimates of the company’s future cash flows.
Such a fate may seem unthinkable, given how far the stock has already fallen. But Facebook may struggle to keep pace with Google, which, though it is a more mature Internet company, is still finding ways to grow fast. In its second quarter, the volume of “paid clicks” (the number of times users click on a link that generates revenue for Google) rose 42 percent from the year-earlier period. That’s the fastest growth since 2007, according to analysts at Nomura. And despite its extraordinary growth, investors still give Google’s shares only an ordinary valuation.
But there’s still hope for Facebook. 鉴于股价已跌至多远。但是facebook可能与谷歌这个相比更成熟的英特网公司同步竞争，尽管谷歌公司一直在寻找不断发展强大的方式。在第二季度，付费点击总量（用户在一定时间内点击链接为谷歌公司所带来的收入）从年前早期已增长了42个百分点。这是至2007年来的最快增长，根据Nomura公司分析家分析。 尽管有如此显著增长，投资家门在谷歌股价上仍然采取普通估价方式。
Negativity can feed on itself in the stock market, and the over-optimism of the I.P.O. may simply have been replaced with rabid pessimism today. “As with most other young growth stocks, no one really knows Facebook’s value,” said Aswath Damodaran, a professor of finance at the New York University Stern School of Business. “That means people can overreact in both directions.”
There are ways to get back into investors’ good graces. One is for Facebook to be more convincing when explaining why it’s special.
Since its own I.P.O., LinkedIn has kept investors enthralled. The company trades at 79 times projected 2013 earnings, a clear sign that the market believes the company has created a revolutionary space for companies to recruit.
Then there’s Amazon.com, which is extraordinarily talented at projecting itself as extraordinary. Its shares trade at 100 times its projected 2013 earnings, even though it has reported what might look like disappointing earnings for several years. The dream is that Amazon is well on its way to dominating Internet commerce, and can look forward to prodigious profits.
Amazon.com also shows there’s a way to get investors believing again. Its shares plunged amid fears that it could go bankrupt soon after the dot-com boom of the late 1990s, but in the last 10 years it has regained extraordinary status.
Facebook could use some of that Amazon magic.
Facebook is banned in China with 700000 Chinese users
Facebook's traffic in China has rebounded in early 2011 after dipping as low as 30,000 people last year, according to new data from Inside Facebook. The number of active monthly users jumped to 700,000 in early February, up from just over 100,000 at the beginning of January 2011. During 2010, the monthly total did not exceed that level.
The Facebook-tracking blog has previously reported that access to Facebook and Twitter was blocked in China in July 2009 after riots broke out between police and protesters in the Xinjiang province. Before then, Facebook had about 1 million active monthly users -- still a tiny fraction of China's 300 million Internet users and 1.3 billion people, but more than it has been since.
China, of course, is know for operating one of the largest and most sophisticated Internet filtering systems in the world. Its so-called Great Firewall uses a wide variety of overlapping techniques for blocking content and Web tools deemed politically threatening by the Chinese government, according to the OpenNet Initiative, which monitors Internet censorship globally.
In an effort to pry open the vast market, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg traveled to China in December to meet with some of the country's top technology executives. He has not hidden his interest in expanding there. "How can you connect the whole world if you leave out a billion people?" he told a group of entrepreneurs at Stanford University last fall.
With an estimated 600 million users worldwide -- 70% of whom are outside the U.S. -- Facebook could grow that much larger with a significant presence in China. Whether Zuckerberg's trip led to any loosening of restrictions that led to the spike in Facebook traffic since January isn't clear.
"There are so many complexities with the China market, and so many different ways that users may be getting around firewall constraints, that I'd take individual data points with a grain of salt," said Susan Su at Inside Facebook. "Instead, I think it's wise to look at the 700,000 number as a sort of alert to keep watching this area in the weeks and months to come."
At the same time, Facebook's role as a tool in organizing and mobilizing revolts that overthrew governments in Tunisia and Egypt can't be lost on Chinese officials. Despite a speech today by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reiterating a call for greater Internet freedom globally, it doesn't appear China will take any significant step to lift its online clampdown.
In the speech at George Washington University, Clinton noted that China's economic growth has been strong even while Internet censorship has been high. That's because many businesses have been willing to accept restrictive Internet rules to gain access to its markets. "But those restrictions will have long-term costs that threaten one day to become a noose that restrains growth and development," she said.
Whether Facebook's traffic in China continues to increase during the year or shrink back to lower levels could be one indicator of where the government's Internet policy is headed. And what -- if any -- restrictions Facebook is willing to accept to build its business in China is another question.
COMMENTARY: A lot of smaller social networking sites in the U.S. would sell their souls to have 700,000 users, but China's huge social networking market makes that number irrelevant. I have often asked myself, whether Facebook could ever attain the same level of success in China as it has in the U.S. Unfortunately, we won't know for sure until Facebook is permitted to broadast there.
I have researched China's rapidly growing social network space, and believe that Facebook would not be successful there. You can read reasons in a previous blog article dated February 12, 2011 titled, "China's Social Network Giants Battle For Supremacy, And Why Facebook Would Struggle There".
Zuck can analyze China as long as he wants, but over 24,000 other Western sites have banned from China, and most of them have yet to figure out why they've been banned.
If you want to know if your favorite site is banned in China, you can use WebSitePulse to find out. According to WebSitePulse, you can test any website in real-time to check if it is accessible from China. The Golden Shield Project (a.k.a. Great Firewall of China) is owned by the Government of China (MPS) and was started in 1998. The firewall system blocks website content by preventing IP addresses from being routed through and consists of standard firewall and proxy servers at the Internet gateways of China's ISPs. The banning of websites is mostly uncoordinated and ad-hoc, with some web sites being blocked from one city and the same web sites being allowed from other cities and vice versa. Users can check if a website is banned in the following cities in China: Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and Hong Kong.
如果你想知道你最喜欢的网站是否被限制在中国以外，可以用WebSitePulse （网站脉搏）。根据这个网站脉搏，你可以实时测试任何网站，看是否被中国屏蔽。 金盾工程（又名中国防火墙）是由中国政府(MPS)所有，成立于1998年。防火墙系统通过阻止IP地址经过来阻止网站内容，是由标准的防火墙系统和中国网络服务商网关的代理服务器组成。网站被限制大多数是因为不协调或者特摄的原因，有些网站仅仅对某个城市屏蔽而对其他城市自由开放，反之亦然。用户可以测试网站是否对以下中国城市屏蔽如：上海、北京、广州跟香港。
Thankfully, my blog is not banned in China. Sorry Zuck, I'm in, you're out.
Courtesy of an article dated February 15. 2011 appearing in MediaPost PublicationsOnline Media Daily
Stocks in the United States declined Monday and losses steepened in Europe as investors reassessed last week’s European Union summit meeting and reacted to a new warning that the sovereign debt crisis could get worse. The declines came in the wake of a rally at the end of last week, when investors waded back into stocks in hope that European leaders on Friday could deliver much-needed firepower to help lift the region out of its crisis.
But Monday’s activity suggested that investors now believe the meeting was inconclusive at best.
In a reminder of the pressure on the European Union, Moody’s Investors Service noted Monday that it is reviewing the ratings of debt in European Union countries for a possible downgrade. S.&P. is expected to announce the results of its own review as soon as this week. Cuts in credit ratings, particularly for the so-called core euro zone countries, could play havoc with bailout plans.
“It looks like a reversal out of what was, from my standpoint, unwarranted optimism on Friday,” said Keith B. Hembre, the chief economist and chief investment strategist at Nuveen Asset Management. “It is a little bit of a puzzle as to why the market tends to act so euphoric going into these meetings only to act so disappointed.”
从我的立场上看，周五的无端乐观看起来像是一个什么逆转，Nuveen Asset Management首席经济学家以及首席政治学家说道。“为什么股市如此乐意于参加这些会议而却表现得让人如此失望，对此我有些困惑。”
In addition, the chip maker Intel said before trading opened in New York that its fourth-quarter revenue would be lower than expected because of shortages of hard disk drives. It now expects fourth-quarter revenue of $13.4 billion to $14 billion, down from a previous forecast of $14.2 billion to $15.2 billion.
Shares of Intel, a component of the Dow, lost nearly 4 percent to $24.02.
At 4 p.m., the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was down 1.5 percent. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 1.3 percent, as did the Nasdaq composite index. Financial stocks were down more than 3 percent, and energy shares fell more than 2 percent.
下午4点，标准普尔500股票下跌了1.5%。DOW 琼斯工业平均下跌了1.3%，根据Nasdaq composite index 奈斯达克综合指数。金融股价下跌高于3%，能源股价高于2%。
In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50, a barometer of euro zone blue chips, closed down 3.1 percent, while the FTSE 100 in London fell 1.8 percent. The DAX in Frankfurt lost 3.4 percent, and the CAC in Paris declined 2.6 percent.
在欧洲，欧元斯托克50指数，作为欧元区蓝筹股的晴雨表，收盘下跌3.1％ ，而在伦敦金融时报100指数下跌了1.8％， 在法兰克福DAX指数下跌了3.4％，巴黎CAC下降2.6％ 。
“All of that just breeds uncertainty and I think you are just seeing that reflected in the market,” he said.
The yield on the 10-year bonds of Italy, the country that the summit was called to save, climbed toward the 7 percent level that analysts say could prove unsustainable over the long term. It gained 20 basis points to 6.5 percent.
As with previous meetings of European politicians, expectations of strong action from the summit were “sorely disappointed again,” said Richard Batty, an investment strategist at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh. In fact, he said, many investors do not even believe officials are addressing the right issues.
“No one has talked about what the euro zone’s growth strategy is,” he said, “but economic growth is what does most of the eroding of debt. We’ve heard nothing about economic policy, only about fiscal policies that are meant to control spending in the short term.”
He said a lasting solution would require fiscal transfers to the peripheral nations, a euro bond market and, above all, aggressive money printing by the European Central Bank, but “unfortunately, none of that was forthcoming.”
Bond trading showed that credit market stresses were returning. Yields on other peripheral euro zone government bonds rose, with Spanish 10-years at 5.710 percent, up 3 basis points. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percent.
In one small positive sign, Italy on Monday auctioned 7 billion euros of one-year debt securities, drawing demand for 1.92 times as many securities were on offer. The bills were priced to yield 5.95 percent, down from the 6.09 percent the Italian Treasury paid to sell similar securities on Nov. 10. The auction was an indication that investors might have taken heart from the new direction in Italian politics after Mario Monti succeeded Si lvio Berlusconi as prime minister.
从一个较小的积极现象来看，意大利周一拍卖了一年来债券的70亿欧元，当众多交易债券正在发行时提款需求达到了1.92倍。债券价格标价为产量的5.95%，比意大利财政部在11月10日出售相似证券的6.09%有所降低。这场拍卖会也表示投资者们可能已将心思从意大利政策至Mario Monti 继承 Si lvio Berlusconi 总统之位之后的新方向转移了。
Yields on the bonds of the countries considered the safest fell as their prices rose. German 10-year bonds were down 13 basis points at 2.01 percent, while United States 10-year notes were trading to yield 2.023 percent, down 4 basis points.
Asian markets ended the day mixed. The Tokyo benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average rose 1.4 percent, while the Sydney market index S.&P./ASX 200 rose 1.2 percent. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index slipped about 0.1 percent and in Shanghai the composite index dropped 1 percent.
亚洲市场结束了这混乱的一天。东京Nikkei 225股票平均上涨了1.4个百分点，但是悉尼市场指数S.&P./ASX 200上涨了1.2个百分点。在香港，Hang Seng 指数下滑了大约0.1个百分点，而在上海综合指数下跌了1个百分点。
美国的Crude oil futures 下降到$97.91一桶，及下跌了1.5个百分点。Comex gold futures 下降了2.9个百分点，及 $1,664.00一盅司。
Today is the last day of this month, I think I should write down something. I have come back to work from home for one month, how I want this month ends slowly, because so many things waiting for me, I need adjust my mood and attitude to receive my life at the beginning of 2012. Yeah, I relialized a truth that so many years I haven’t, I’m not the same with others as the trouble, when I consulted for the doctor about the trouble that began when I was 6 years old, I turned in a very bad mood as so many years I was used to what I am.
As this trouble, it’s hard for me to get another job, it’s hard for me to find my another half, but someone is still beside me, I didn’t think he would beside with me forever, while now I am moved for what he said to my colleague, maybe I think I will receive him someday in the future. I know I am not young among so many girls, and I can’t receive the adoration from a 21 years old boy. So, not exactly for what my dad told me at home that I must receive a man not better than me, I felt a little sad. If you love a man, you should believe him all the time and give him confidence, that’s about time.
It seems that I haven’t treasured my life until I can receive a man, I am still a one, no solicitude around me except my parents, but they have my brothers. For life, what I should face with what attidude, that’s a problem. Relative becomes the most important for me, I felt warm when I read a diary from my 17-year-old niece who now study in grade 2 in a high school, it read that your jiaojiao po will treat you (my family) good forever when she grows up. Next year she will face what I had before my college, an examination so serious in China, I can’t promise she will have a good result, but she will go better than me in her remain years.
2012-2-28There is so much I have not been, so much I have not seen.
I have not thought and have not done or felt enough—the early sun, rain and the seasonal delight of flocks of ducks and geese in flight, the mysteries of late-at-night. I still need time to read a book, write poems, paint a picture, look at scenes and faces dear to me. There is something more to be of value—something I should find within myself—as peace of mind, patience, grace and being kind. I shall take and I shall give, while yet, there is so much to live for—rainbows, stars that gleam, the fields,the hills, the hope, the dream the truth that one must seek.
有很多事情，我未曾想够、做够或体会够——朝阳、雨水、由成群飞翔的鸭鹅带来的季节性喜悦以及那些午夜的神秘。我还需要时间读书、写诗、作画、观赏景色以及我所爱的脸庞。还有更多具有价 值的东西——那些我应该在自己内心发现的东西——心灵的宁静、耐心、优雅与仁慈。我要获取，我也要施予，然而还有许多值得为之而活——彩虹、闪烁的星星、 田野、山丘、希望、梦想以及人必须追求的真理。
I’ll stay here—treasure every day and love the world in my own way!
Today is the last day this year I can sit and work in the office, and I’ll go back home tomorrow, once I get off in my hometown in the afternoon, one of my brothers will come to pick up me. Even I am the youngest girl in my family, I am not young among so many girls who prepare for marriage any longer.
Ok, my work today make me feel much at ease, not much, after the update of Alibaba, talking to clients and email to them, I should publish a piece of news and blog in the company English website www.chinashoesmachine.com, and a piece of Chinese article and another russian one in their relevant version, what’s more, a piece of english article in the English version of our company Chinese website www.dgqifeng.com. Now you can see our company invest much on the internet to attract more clients from different countries.
Yesterday I read an article from a beautiful teacher in my college, whom most of us like and enjoy her course. The article Never quit the persuit of learning remind of me that I haven’t read long. Several months ago, I apllied for Japanese training course which lasted for nearly 3 months, during that time, though tired, I felt full, you know I don’t have bf then, such an good time for me to learn. In order to get another diploma, and pass the examination in April, I should make myself study at night. So``` I need control myself to surf on the internet less, shopping less.
At the end of this year, I told myself, even I told much to myself ever and seldom make them come ture. I should be more stronger and take more smile to others in the year 2012, so I should improve myself, everybody can inspect me. Come on!
2011-12-24Christmas Is Coming.More than one year ago, I viewed a blog from a young couple, looking at their photos, so happy, they looked great together, as well as now! It seemed that the beautiful love attract you which would soon be happened to you, even not, thoes young couple photos tell me maybe ture love is waiting for me somewhere.
But where, and when can I encounter him. I read some articles about this, and they told me, girls should be confident to wait for your Mr.Right coming, no matter what happened to you attitude is the matter. Now, everybody, almost all the youngers (though there are only one percent Christians in China) are thinking about the Christmas, lovers are thinking of the celebration, singles are considering where to go, maybe dating with somebody, except me. At this Saturday night, it’s also the Christmas eve, what should I do? Stay at home alone?
After all the work finished, I viewed some interesting blog through my blog, look at the man, who is the bloger, the happy woman’s husband, I read the Christmas card made by him for his wife, the card said it’s 122 days they haven’t seen each other, how he miss his wife. I have been in a bad mood these days for my future made up of career and love. Actually, I did not make a good performance for both. The coming 2012, one year older for me. Sometimes how I want to leave this city to escape these all, to get a job where I can encounter somebody, maybe Guangzhou, Shenzhen etc, after all not here. Yeah I’ll leave here next year. But mostly I feel so happy, my life is made of many happiness and a little sadness.
Today one of my classmates helped me apply for the examination next year, so I’ll go to Changsha where my college there to take the examination in April. I don’t know where will I be then, maybe in Guangzhou I think. Anywhere, what can I do tomorrow or at night, I can shopping online, to buy the beautiful clothes, shoes, etc. or watch TV or buy something to eat outside. And life are telling me, I should improve myself all the time and enjoy my life, by the way, wait for his coming to be my side, come on!
Days ago, my brother called me, I was surfing on the internet, when looking at the coming call, I feel surprised, that’s brother, my third brother who is working on securities to help company listed on stock exchange. Why call me? anything happened? The reason why I just think about so it's he seldom call me.
Anywhere I felt so happy! My brother Camel (I think it’s his English name) was on a business trip in Changsha where my college locates, when he drove his car near my college he called me and aksed me whether my college there, i answered yes and told him how to go to my college. Even my college is not a brand university, I love it so much, because it helped me to spend a happly student life there, pure and beautiful, I think everybody like me can feel so many nice memories taken for them. And that’s my brother who paid the tuition fees for me, he started working in 2007 as he graduated as a postgraduate student when I began my college, except the tuition feel in the first year from my old father, he born all my remain expenses in the later three years.
Such well-fed and well-clothed life gave me a gratitude heart to him and my family, and this college also taught me how to be myself, even only three years, it became the part of life.
What’s happiness? It’s a call from my brother; it’s a call from friends or relatives on my birthday, it’s getting a nice goods from online shopping; it’s a “goodnight” from someone you care for.
As somebody have walked out of my life, nearly half a year with someone and ended within my expectation.
One year ago, we tore apart, with him who i encountered in my college, i suffered the sadness and painess from depart with him. i know clearly that whom are the best love of mine until now. The pure love happened in college always can give us the beautiful memory, such as the first love with him.
I remember clearly that the day after i sent the messege to tell somebody it's time to ends that relationship. the power was cut off, no need to work that day, which gave me the chance and space to cry alone, i stayed at room to cry. You know, how i want to work to occupy all my time in case of the tiem for crying. While, i cried and during that three days i cired for my bad love affairs.
How badly i experienced this bad affair with somebody.
Now i suffered the same painess again.
Anywhere, We would have our own family in the future.
2011-6-10Now electricity in company is cut off, so one day for rest while i hated that so much. People would like to enjoy this holiday because of electricity-cutting, while i am not. Somebody disappeared in my life from last night.
I called my good friend in Guangzhou and told her this, "our company's power was cut,we have one day for rest, how much i hate this". "you are crazy, one-day rest is not a bad thing." I tell her nothing about somebody and me.She didn't know that how i need working today to protect myself from thinking about my bad love affairs.
How badly i experienced in 2011 in aspect of emotional life.
Last night as somebody let me down again, i finally decided to end this all. To pull all contact methods into the blacklist: Mobile phone, QQ, Blog, MSN. Then closed my mobile phone to help my friend translate the abstract of thesis for graduation, i need this. It's the next day then, eyes got painful, i went to bed, and thought about all things having happened this half year, only i made a wrong decision at the beginning then made myself suffered so much, in the end, i got nothing. Everybody have thought that i got cheated, even myself as well. How failed i feel! Tears came out from my ears, floating my face then down to my pillow.
Now i enjoy the time that leave me alone, so noisy outside from the electric generator. When i writng down this, tears still run around in my eyes, be falling down at any time. I enjoy my work, but i did a so bad performance on my love affairs. In this annoying city, i encountered the wrong person at this wrong place. I hate here!