欢迎大家到我空间,Best wishes for you in 2012. 希望与大家共同学习与进步
  • Finding the facebook magic( 寻找facebook魔术)

    2012-08-18 17:05:07

    题记:最近比较关注facebook的新闻,还没来得及修改,请大家多多指教。

     

    Want to better understand the crazy world of technology stocks? That requires having a grasp of something that can best be described as the curse of the ordinary.

    想要更好了解科技股这个疯狂世界吗?这就要求对那些定义为普通祸端有着透彻的了解。

    That curse could mean that Facebook, which is already down by nearly 50 percent from its offering price to $19.05 on Friday, could drop even further.

    这个祸端可以理解为facebook, 该股价已从其发行价下跌了近50个点及19.05美元,而且有持续下跌的趋势。

    It’s all about valuations.

    这一切可归咎与估价。

    Most efforts to judge the right stock market value for a company rely on profit forecasts. But earnings at young technology companies are harder to predict than at businesses using traditional approaches to generate earnings in other industries.

    正确判定一个公司股票市场价值的诸多努力均需依靠利润预算。

    但是一个年轻的技术公司的收入比起那些用传统方式在其他产业创造受益的公司更难。

    In times of optimism, that knowledge dearth can actually work to the advantage of technology companies. Executives fill that emptiness with promises of paradigm-breaking ways of doing business, prompting Wall Street analysts to project amazing profits.

    在乐观时刻,知识的缺乏会真正影响技术公司的优势。行政官们用商务经营的破范式承若来填补这一空缺,推动华尔街分析家们来预计惊人收入。

    Investors get excited and flock to their stock debuts. In short, it’s all about being seen as extraordinary.

    投资家们兴冲冲地对将他们的股票进行首次亮相,简单来说,这一切大家所看到的被认为是非凡的。

    That magic allowed Facebook to go public at a stock price that was an astronomical 100 times its earnings per share. Back in May, investors seemingly had little trouble believing that Facebook could entwine advertising into all interactions on its site and generate extraordinary revenue.

    这种魔术让facebook亮相于股票市场,且以收入100倍的股价让公众大跌眼镜。回到五月份,投资家门似乎对facebook能带动广告业进入站内互动且能创造惊人价值表示有些难相信。

    Indeed, each of the companies that have gone public in recent months has needed one main magical story. For Groupon, it was that the company had found a revolutionary marketing tool that was perfect for small businesses. The untapped market was theoretically huge.

    确实,近几个月内每个公开发售股票的公司都需要一个主要传奇故事。对于 Groupon, 该公司已经找到了一个市场改革工具,对小公司可是说是完美。对尚未开发的市场是理论上的大难度性。

    But the nightmare begins when investors stop believing in that central story. Earnings don’t have to be terrible, and they haven’t been at the hardest hit firms — Facebook, Groupon and Zynga, the online game company. The earnings just have to contain a few clues that the dream won’t be achieved.

    但是噩梦开始了,当投资家们不再信任那个核心故事。收入不一定是恐怖的,起码在受灾最严重的公司不是这样-facebook, Groupon Zynga, 网络游戏公司。 从收入上可以看出梦想终将不会实现。

    Then, the transition from extraordinary to ordinary is brutal.

    那么,由惊人到平凡的过度无疑是残酷的。

    Groupon is down 75 percent from its initial public offering. The market now values it as if it were any old marketing company; its shares are trading at 12 times the earnings that analysts are projecting for 2013, according to data from Thomson Reuters.

    Groupon从始发股价下跌了75个百分点。市场现在将其作为任何一个历史久远的公司作为估价。根据Thomson路透社数据显示,它的股价被分析家们预测在2013年将会有12倍的受益。

    This is a critical time for Facebook.

    对月facebook, 这是个艰难时期。

    The faith level in the company is declining. Right now, Facebook is trading at 31 times the earnings that analysts are expecting for 2013. That’s not too expensive, but it’s far above Google’s 2013 price-to-earnings ratio of 14 times.

    公司的信誉度正在下降。现在, facebook正在用分析家们预计的2013年股价以31倍收入价进行出售。 这并不是很贵了,但是比起谷歌2013年的市场股价收益率远远高出了14倍。

    One reason investors have fled the stock is that Facebook’s second-quarter earnings showed few signs that it was close to achieving meteoric growth. “There have been almost no positive signals at Facebook in the past six months,” said Anup Srivastava, an assistant professor at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. He thinks Facebook shares should be worth about $12, based on his estimates of the company’s future cash flows.

    投资家门避开股票的一个原因是facebook第二季度的收入略有显示对实现飞速增长似乎存在较大困难。“在过去六个月来,facebook似乎无任何乐观迹象,”西北大学凯洛格管理学院助理教授Anup Srivastava说。他认为facebook股价应当在基于该公司未来现金流动上大约值12美元每股。

    Such a fate may seem unthinkable, given how far the stock has already fallen. But Facebook may struggle to keep pace with Google, which, though it is a more mature Internet company, is still finding ways to grow fast. In its second quarter, the volume of “paid clicks” (the number of times users click on a link that generates revenue for Google) rose 42 percent from the year-earlier period. That’s the fastest growth since 2007, according to analysts at Nomura. And despite its extraordinary growth, investors still give Google’s shares only an ordinary valuation.

    这样的命运似乎难以置信,股票

    But there’s still hope for Facebook. 鉴于股价已跌至多远。但是facebook可能与谷歌这个相比更成熟的英特网公司同步竞争,尽管谷歌公司一直在寻找不断发展强大的方式。在第二季度,付费点击总量(用户在一定时间内点击链接为谷歌公司所带来的收入)从年前早期已增长了42个百分点。这是至2007年来的最快增长,根据Nomura公司分析家分析。 尽管有如此显著增长,投资家门在谷歌股价上仍然采取普通估价方式。

     

    Negativity can feed on itself in the stock market, and the over-optimism of the I.P.O. may simply have been replaced with rabid pessimism today. “As with most other young growth stocks, no one really knows Facebook’s value,” said Aswath Damodaran, a professor of finance at the New York University Stern School of Business. “That means people can overreact in both directions.”

    在股票市场,否定性也同样可养活自己,在过于乐观的I.P.O.简直可能被如今的狂热悲观所取代。“对于其它大多数年轻的增值性股票,没有一个可以知道facebook的价值,”纽约斯特恩大学商学院经融学教授Aswath Damodaran说,“这也意味着在两种走向上都可能反应过度。”

    There are ways to get back into investors’ good graces. One is for Facebook to be more convincing when explaining why it’s special.

    受到投资家的亲睐还是有机可循的,对于facebook一种就是在解释其特殊性时使其更具说服力。

    Since its own I.P.O., LinkedIn has kept investors enthralled. The company trades at 79 times projected 2013 earnings, a clear sign that the market believes the company has created a revolutionary space for companies to recruit.

    自从他们自己的I.P.O.Linkedin 让投资家们一头雾水以来。该公司已经比预计的2013年股价出售79倍股票,明显表明市场已经相信该公司能在公司招聘上创造一个改革性空间。

    Then there’s Amazon.com, which is extraordinarily talented at projecting itself as extraordinary. Its shares trade at 100 times its projected 2013 earnings, even though it has reported what might look like disappointing earnings for several years. The dream is that Amazon is well on its way to dominating Internet commerce, and can look forward to prodigious profits.

    那么这里还有个亚马逊网站,在预测其特殊性上确实表现得才华出众,尽管该公司在几年内令人失望的收入已曝光。Amazon的梦想就是在主导电子商务路上能一切顺利,而且期待能作出万众瞩目的受益。

    Amazon.com also shows there’s a way to get investors believing again. Its shares plunged amid fears that it could go bankrupt soon after the dot-com boom of the late 1990s, but in the last 10 years it has regained extraordinary status.

    亚马逊网站同时也表明还有其它方式能让投资家们再次相信。担心股价暴跌,自20世纪90年代dot-com的热潮后将迅速破产,但是在最后10年已经回复了其非凡地位。

    Facebook could use some of that Amazon magic.

    Facebook可能利用亚马逊魔术的其中几个。

  • Facebook被中国屏蔽,却拥有70万中国用户

    2012-07-28 10:38:51

    02/16/2011

    Facebook is banned in China with 700000 Chinese users

    Facebook被中国屏蔽,却拥有70万中国用户

    题记:最近找了个免费代理服务器用上了facebook,不由得搜了下为什么facebook所有国家都能用,唯独中国却将其屏蔽,其实中国有其自身原由,这里就不多说了。

                        

    Facebook's traffic in China has rebounded in early 2011 after dipping as low as 30,000 people last year, according to new data from Inside Facebook. The number of active monthly users jumped to 700,000 in early February, up from just over 100,000 at the beginning of January 2011. During 2010, the monthly total did not exceed that level.

    根据facebook内部最新数据,自10Facebook用户超低至30000人以来到2011年初Facebook在中国的流量再度复苏。月活跃用户由2011年一月初的10000跳跃到了二月初的70000. 而在2010年间,月活跃用户数从未超越该水平。

    The Facebook-tracking blog has previously reported that access to Facebook and Twitter was blocked in China in July 2009 after riots broke out between police and protesters in the Xinjiang province. Before then, Facebook had about 1 million active monthly users -- still a tiny fraction of China's 300 million Internet users and 1.3 billion people, but more than it has been since.

    facebook跟踪博客来看自20096月份新疆政策动乱爆发以来,facebook, Twitter已被中国屏蔽。而在此之前,facebook已经有1百万的月活跃用户-与中国3亿英特网用户与13亿人口相比,简直是小巫见大巫,远不如之前用户数。

    China, of course, is know for operating one of the largest and most sophisticated Internet filtering systems in the world. Its so-called Great Firewall uses a wide variety of overlapping techniques for blocking content and Web tools deemed politically threatening by the Chinese government, according to the OpenNet Initiative, which monitors Internet censorship globally.

    当然,中国,一直以来以世界最大最复杂的英特网过滤系统运营者为名。也就是所谓的防火墙,根据网络开放协议,采用了多种重叠技术,中国政府以此来禁止一切被视为政治威胁的内容跟网络工具,同时监督全球的英特网视察工作。

    In an effort to pry open the vast market, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg traveled to China in December to meet with some of the country's top technology executives. He has not hidden his interest in expanding there. "How can you connect the whole world if you leave out a billion people?" he told a group of entrepreneurs at Stanford University last fall.

    为打开中国这个巨大的市场,facebook首席执行官Mark Zuckerberg12月试图以来中国旅游为由会见了中国顶级技术行政官。对开发该市场的浓厚兴趣,Mark无任何隐晦。“丢掉这100万人口,如何让你们跟全世界人民保持联系?”去年秋季,Mark就告诉过斯坦福大学的企业家们。

      

    With an estimated 600 million users worldwide -- 70% of whom are outside the U.S. -- Facebook could grow that much larger with a significant presence in China. Whether Zuckerberg's trip led to any loosening of restrictions that led to the spike in Facebook traffic since January isn't clear.

    以全球6亿用户为计数-相比美国以外70%facebook用户,在中国肯定能拥有比这更显著的数据。从一月份以来的Zuckerberg的中国之行是否对facebook引进中国之路的这个障碍造成某些损失或一定限制,尚不为人知。

    "There are so many complexities with the China market, and so many different ways that users may be getting around firewall constraints, that I'd take individual data points with a grain of salt," said Susan Su at Inside Facebook. "Instead, I think it's wise to look at the 700,000 number as a sort of alert to keep watching this area in the weeks and months to come."

    “中国市场存在诸多复杂性,让用户受到防火墙限制可能有多种方法,本人以半信半疑的态度给出这些单个数据要点,”facebook内部工作人员Susan Su说,“相反,我想用这个70万数字为警报是很明智的,然后继续留意在接下来的每周每月该区域的动态”。

    At the same time, Facebook's role as a tool in organizing and mobilizing revolts that overthrew governments in Tunisia and Egypt can't be lost on Chinese officials. Despite a speech today by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reiterating a call for greater Internet freedom globally, it doesn't appear China will take any significant step to lift its online clampdown.

    同时,以facebook作为组织和动员起义的工具来推翻突尼斯政府,而埃及也不会丢失中国官员。尽管美国国务卿希拉里克林顿在今日发表演讲重申更广大的因特网使用自由,但是似乎中国对取消网络言行的限制禁止未作出任何有效举措。

    In the speech at George Washington University, Clinton noted that China's economic growth has been strong even while Internet censorship has been high. That's because many businesses have been willing to accept restrictive Internet rules to gain access to its markets. "But those restrictions will have long-term costs that threaten one day to become a noose that restrains growth and development," she said.

    在乔治华盛顿大学的演讲中,克林顿注意到中国经济增长平稳,然而网络检查制度却已经特别严格呢。这也就是为什么许多商务往来为进入其市场都愿意接收这种限制性网络条款。“但是这些限制性措施将消耗长时间成本,以至于在将来某一天对其经济发展与开发形成限制性套索。”他说。

    Whether Facebook's traffic in China continues to increase during the year or shrink back to lower levels could be one indicator of where the government's Internet policy is headed. And what -- if any -- restrictions Facebook is willing to accept to build its business in China is another question.

    Facebook在中国的流量是否会在今年继续增长或萎缩至更低水平将会成为政府网络政策起主导性地区的一个晴雨表。但是,如果真有,限制facebook愿意接受在中国的业务又是另外一个问题呢。

    COMMENTARY:   A lot of smaller social networking sites in the U.S. would sell their souls to have 700,000 users, but China's huge social networking market makes that number irrelevant.   I have often asked myself, whether Facebook could ever attain the same level of success in China as it has in the U.S.  Unfortunately, we won't know for sure until Facebook is permitted to broadast there.  

    实况报导——许多在美国地区的小型社会网络服务网站都愿意出卖他们的灵魂来拥有70万用户,但是中国大型的社会网络服务网站对这个数据却一点也没放在心上。 我多次问过自己facebook在中国曾经的成绩同如今在美国的是否齐平。不幸的是,我们不能确保其准确性除非facebook在中国限制解除到来的那一天。

    I have researched China's rapidly growing social network space, and believe that Facebook would not be successful there.   You can read reasons in a previous blog article dated February 12, 2011 titled, "China's Social Network Giants Battle For Supremacy, And Why Facebook Would Struggle There".

    我已经再次研究过中国迅速增长的社会性网络服务空间,而且我相信facebook在那不会成功。你们可以去阅读我早期2011212题为《中国社会网络服务巨头争夺霸权,facebook奋战之由》了解其原由。

    Zuck can analyze China as long as he wants, but over 24,000 other Western sites have banned from China, and most of them have yet to figure out why they've been banned.  

    Zuck长时间分析中国只要他愿意,多久都可以,但是其他西方网站有24000以上都被限制在中国意外,而且其中大多数都不知道其被限制原由。

    If you want to know if your favorite site is banned in China, you can use WebSitePulse to find out. According to WebSitePulse, you can test any website in real-time to check if it is accessible from China. The Golden Shield Project (a.k.a. Great Firewall of China) is owned by the Government of China (MPS) and was started in 1998.  The firewall system blocks website content by preventing IP addresses from being routed through and consists of standard firewall and proxy servers at the Internet gateways of China's ISPs. The banning of websites is mostly uncoordinated and ad-hoc, with some web sites being blocked from one city and the same web sites being allowed from other cities and vice versa.  Users can check if a website is banned in the following cities in China: Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and Hong Kong.  

    如果你想知道你最喜欢的网站是否被限制在中国以外,可以用WebSitePulse (网站脉搏)。根据这个网站脉搏,你可以实时测试任何网站,看是否被中国屏蔽。 金盾工程(又名中国防火墙)是由中国政府(MPS)所有,成立于1998年。防火墙系统通过阻止IP地址经过来阻止网站内容,是由标准的防火墙系统和中国网络服务商网关的代理服务器组成。网站被限制大多数是因为不协调或者特摄的原因,有些网站仅仅对某个城市屏蔽而对其他城市自由开放,反之亦然。用户可以测试网站是否对以下中国城市屏蔽如:上海、北京、广州跟香港。

    Thankfully, my blog is not banned in China.  Sorry Zuck, I'm in, you're out. 

    Courtesy of an article dated February 15. 2011 appearing in MediaPost PublicationsOnline Media Daily 

    感谢上帝,我的博客没有被中国屏蔽,不好意思Zuck,我已经进来了,你被限制在外。一篇在2011215日发表的谦恭有礼的文章刊登在媒体发布每日在线。

  • Markets Slide on Euro and Intel 欧元英特尔处股市滑坡

    2012-03-27 16:53:02

    Stocks in the United States declined Monday and losses steepened in Europe as investors reassessed last week’s European Union summit meeting and reacted to a new warning that the sovereign debt crisis could get worse. The declines came in the wake of a rally at the end of last week, when investors waded back into stocks in hope that European leaders on Friday could deliver much-needed firepower to help lift the region out of its crisis.

    投资者们就上周的欧盟首脑会议正式摊牌,并对主权债务危机有可能恶化表示新的警告,美国股市在周一出现下跌现象,打断了以往直线上升的走势。这次下跌受上周末集会的影响,会上投资者再次倾注于股票市场,寄望于欧洲领导人能在周五雪中送炭来缓解这一危机。

    But Monday’s activity suggested that investors now believe the meeting was inconclusive at best.

    然而从周一的这次活动可以看出,投资者对这次会议的信任就不好说了。

    In a reminder of the pressure on the European Union, Moody’s Investors Service noted Monday that it is reviewing the ratings of debt in European Union countries for a possible downgrade. S.&P. is expected to announce the results of its own review as soon as this week. Cuts in credit ratings, particularly for the so-called core euro zone countries, could play havoc with bailout plans.

    在对欧盟压力的提醒下,穆迪投资服务公司指出周一对欧盟债务的省察有可能会降级,S&P公司希望这周能尽快公布省察结果。信用评级的垄断,尤其是对所谓的欧盟核心国家对救市计划可能起到了适得其反的作用。

    “It looks like a reversal out of what was, from my standpoint, unwarranted optimism on Friday,” said Keith B. Hembre, the chief economist and chief investment strategist at Nuveen Asset Management. “It is a little bit of a puzzle as to why the market tends to act so euphoric going into these meetings only to act so disappointed.”

    从我的立场上看,周五的无端乐观看起来像是一个什么逆转,Nuveen Asset Management首席经济学家以及首席政治学家说道。“为什么股市如此乐意于参加这些会议而却表现得让人如此失望,对此我有些困惑。”

    In addition, the chip maker Intel said before trading opened in New York that its fourth-quarter revenue would be lower than expected because of shortages of hard disk drives. It now expects fourth-quarter revenue of $13.4 billion to $14 billion, down from a previous forecast of $14.2 billion to $15.2 billion.

    此外,芯片制造商英特尔在纽约交易开幕前就说因为硬盘驱动器的缺乏,他们在第四季度财政收入可能比预计的要低。现在预计第四季度的财政收入为134140亿美元,比先前预计的142152亿美元确实有所下降。

    Shares of Intel, a component of the Dow, lost nearly 4 percent to $24.02.

    At 4 p.m., the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was down 1.5 percent. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 1.3 percent, as did the Nasdaq composite index. Financial stocks were down more than 3 percent, and energy shares fell more than 2 percent.

    根据DOW指数的一部分,英特尔的股价下跌了近4%,目前为24.02美元。

    下午4点,标准普尔500股票下跌了1.5%DOW 琼斯工业平均下跌了1.3%,根据Nasdaq composite index 奈斯达克综合指数。金融股价下跌高于3%,能源股价高于2%

    In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50, a barometer of euro zone blue chips, closed down 3.1 percent, while the FTSE 100 in London fell 1.8 percent. The DAX in Frankfurt lost 3.4 percent, and the CAC in Paris declined 2.6 percent.

     在欧洲,欧元斯托克50指数,作为欧元区蓝筹股的晴雨表,收盘下跌3.1 ,而在伦敦金融时报100指数下跌了1.8%, 在法兰克福DAX指数下跌了3.4%,巴黎CAC下降2.6

    Hank Smith, the chief investment officer for Haverford Trust Company, said the combination of the Intel announcement and the loose ends left over from the European summit combined to lower sentiment.

     

    哈弗福德信托公司首席投资官汉克史密斯说,英特尔合并这一公告及关于欧盟首脑会议的成功闭幕将共同来控制大家的情绪。

     

    “All of that just breeds uncertainty and I think you are just seeing that reflected in the market,” he said.

    如此种种滋生了不确定性,我想你们仅仅是看到了来自市场的反应, 他说。

    The yield on the 10-year bonds of Italy, the country that the summit was called to save, climbed toward the 7 percent level that analysts say could prove unsustainable over the long term. It gained 20 basis points to 6.5 percent.

    意大利十年债券量以及该国的攀升的最高点呼吁能够得以维持,分析家称这攀升的7个点可以证明证券市场长期以来的不确定性,涨了20个基本点,到6.5%

    As with previous meetings of European politicians, expectations of strong action from the summit were “sorely disappointed again,” said Richard Batty, an investment strategist at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh. In fact, he said, many investors do not even believe officials are addressing the right issues.

    爱丁堡SLI投资公司的一个投资专家理查德· 柏媞说基于前面欧洲政治家们的会议,对该高峰点的大打出手的期望已经“万劫不复”呢。事实上,很多投资家甚至不相信官员们能正确解决这以问题,他说。

    “No one has talked about what the euro zone’s growth strategy is,” he said, “but economic growth is what does most of the eroding of debt. We’ve heard nothing about economic policy, only about fiscal policies that are meant to control spending in the short term.”

    “没有人能够说出欧元增长策略到底是什么,”他说,“但是经济增长等同于债务的侵蚀”,“我们没听说任何关于经济的政策,只有意味着短期内需控制消费的财政赤字政策。”

    He said a lasting solution would require fiscal transfers to the peripheral nations, a euro bond market and, above all, aggressive money printing by the European Central Bank, but “unfortunately, none of that was forthcoming.”

    他说一个长久的解决方案将要求将赤字影响转移到外围国家,一个欧元债券市场以及,首先是欧洲中央银行的消极钱币印制,但是“不幸的是,没有一项即将实现。”

    The dollar was the winner in the currency market, gaining against all other major currencies. The euro fell to $1.3191 from $1.3387 late Friday in New York.

    美元是货币市场的赢家,打败了世界所有其他主要货币种。在纽约,欧元从上周五最新的$1.3387跌落到了$1.3191

    Bond trading showed that credit market stresses were returning. Yields on other peripheral euro zone government bonds rose, with Spanish 10-years at 5.710 percent, up 3 basis points. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percent.

    从债券贸易可以看出信贷市场的重要性正有所转机。其他外围国家的欧盟政府债券量已有所增长,从西班牙十年来的5.71%增长了3个基本点。一个基本点也就是百分数的1%

    In one small positive sign, Italy on Monday auctioned 7 billion euros of one-year debt securities, drawing demand for 1.92 times as many securities were on offer. The bills were priced to yield 5.95 percent, down from the 6.09 percent the Italian Treasury paid to sell similar securities on Nov. 10. The auction was an indication that investors might have taken heart from the new direction in Italian politics after Mario Monti succeeded Si lvio Berlusconi as prime minister.

    从一个较小的积极现象来看,意大利周一拍卖了一年来债券的70亿欧元,当众多交易债券正在发行时提款需求达到了1.92倍。债券价格标价为产量的5.95%,比意大利财政部在1110日出售相似证券的6.09%有所降低。这场拍卖会也表示投资者们可能已将心思从意大利政策至Mario Monti 继承 Si lvio Berlusconi 总统之位之后的新方向转移了。

    Yields on the bonds of the countries considered the safest fell as their prices rose. German 10-year bonds were down 13 basis points at 2.01 percent, while United States 10-year notes were trading to yield 2.023 percent, down 4 basis points.

    由于债券价格上涨,债券国的债券量下降被认为是最安全的举措。德国10年的债券量下降了2.01%,即13个基本点,然而美国10年来纸币贸易也下跌了2.203%,即4个基本点。

    Asian markets ended the day mixed. The Tokyo benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average rose 1.4 percent, while the Sydney market index S.&P./ASX 200 rose 1.2 percent. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index slipped about 0.1 percent and in Shanghai the composite index dropped 1 percent.

    亚洲市场结束了这混乱的一天。东京Nikkei 225股票平均上涨了1.4个百分点,但是悉尼市场指数S.&P./ASX 200上涨了1.2个百分点。在香港,Hang Seng 指数下滑了大约0.1个百分点,而在上海综合指数下跌了1个百分点。

    Crude oil futures in the United States fell 1.5 percent to $97.91 a barrel. Comex gold futures fell 2.9 percent to $1,664.00 an ounce.

     

    美国的Crude oil futures 下降到$97.91一桶,及下跌了1.5个百分点。Comex gold futures 下降了2.9个百分点,及 $1,664.00一盅司。
  • Hello world, what I should say to you

    2012-02-29 09:05:02

    Today is the last day of this month, I think I should write down something. I have come back to work from home for one month, how I want this month ends slowly, because so many things waiting for me, I need adjust my mood and attitude to receive my life at the beginning of 2012. Yeah, I relialized a truth that so many years I haven’t, I’m not the same with others as the trouble, when I consulted for the doctor about the trouble that began when I was 6 years old, I turned in a very bad mood as so many years I was used to what I am.

    As this trouble, it’s hard for me to get another job, it’s hard for me to find my another half, but someone is still beside me, I didn’t think he would beside with me forever, while now I am moved for what he said to my colleague, maybe I think I will receive him someday in the future. I know I am not young among so many girls, and I can’t receive the adoration from a 21 years old boy. So, not exactly for what my dad told me at home that I must receive a man not better than me, I felt a little sad. If you love a man, you should believe him all the time and give him confidence, that’s about time.

    It seems that I haven’t treasured my life until I can receive a man, I am still a one, no solicitude around me except my parents, but they have my brothers. For life, what I should face with what attidude, that’s a problem. Relative becomes the most important for me, I felt warm when I read a diary from my 17-year-old niece who now study in grade 2 in a high school, it read that your jiaojiao po will treat you (my family) good forever when she grows up. Next year she will face what I had before my college, an examination so serious in China, I can’t promise she will have a good result, but she will go better than me in her remain years.

  • 生命的追求(双语)

    2012-02-28 17:20:32

    There is so much I have not been, so much I have not seen.
    生命中,有那么多我未曾经历过,有那么多我未曾见识过。
    I have not thought and have not done or felt enough—the early sun, rain and the seasonal delight of flocks of ducks and geese in flight, the mysteries of late-at-night. I still need time to read a book, write poems, paint a picture, look at scenes and faces dear to me. There is something more to be of value—something I should find within myself—as peace of mind, patience, grace and being kind. I shall take and I shall give, while yet, there is so much to live for—rainbows, stars that gleam, the fields,the hills, the hope, the dream the truth that one must seek.
    有很多事情,我未曾想够、做够或体会够——朝阳、雨水、由成群飞翔的鸭鹅带来的季节性喜悦以及那些午夜的神秘。我还需要时间读书、写诗、作画、观赏景色以及我所爱的脸庞。还有更多具有价 值的东西——那些我应该在自己内心发现的东西——心灵的宁静、耐心、优雅与仁慈。我要获取,我也要施予,然而还有许多值得为之而活——彩虹、闪烁的星星、 田野、山丘、希望、梦想以及人必须追求的真理。
    I’ll stay here—treasure every day and love the world in my own way!
    我会在此——珍惜每一个时日并且用自己的方式惜爱这个世界!
  • Hello, last dinner(最后一餐)

    2012-01-16 14:41:06

    Today is the last day this year I can sit and work in the office, and I’ll go back home tomorrow, once I get off in my hometown in the afternoon, one of my brothers will come to pick up me. Even I am the youngest girl in my family, I am not young among so many girls who prepare for marriage any longer.

    Ok, my work today make me feel much at ease, not much, after the update of Alibaba, talking to clients and email to them, I should publish a piece of news and blog in the company English website www.chinashoesmachine.com, and a piece of Chinese article and another russian one in their relevant version, what’s more, a piece of english article in the English version of our company Chinese website www.dgqifeng.com. Now you can see our company invest much on the internet to attract more clients from different countries.

    Yesterday I read an article from a beautiful teacher in my college, whom most of us like and enjoy her course. The article Never quit the persuit of learning remind of me that I haven’t read long. Several months ago, I apllied for Japanese training course which lasted for nearly 3 months, during that time, though tired, I felt full, you know I don’t have bf then, such an good time for me to learn. In order to get another diploma, and pass the examination in April, I should make myself study at night. So``` I need control myself to surf on the internet less, shopping less.

    At the end of this year, I told myself, even I told much to myself ever and seldom make them come ture. I should be more stronger and take more smile to others in the year 2012, so I should improve myself, everybody can inspect me. Come on!

  • Such A Christmas In my 24

    2011-12-24 16:44:59

    Christmas Is Coming.More than one year ago, I viewed a blog from a young couple, looking at their photos, so happy, they looked great together, as well as now! It seemed that the beautiful love attract you which would soon be happened to you, even not, thoes young couple photos tell me maybe ture love is waiting for me somewhere.

    But where, and when can I encounter him. I read some articles about this, and they told me, girls should be confident to wait for your Mr.Right coming, no matter what happened to you attitude is the matter. Now, everybody, almost all the youngers (though there are only one percent Christians in China) are thinking about the Christmas, lovers are thinking of the celebration, singles are considering where to go, maybe dating with somebody, except me. At this Saturday night, it’s also the Christmas eve, what should I do? Stay at home alone?

    After all the work finished, I viewed some interesting blog through my blog, look at the man, who is the bloger, the happy woman’s husband, I read the Christmas card made by him for his wife, the card said it’s 122 days they haven’t seen each other, how he miss his wife. I have been in a bad mood these days for my future made up of career and love. Actually, I did not make a good performance for both. The coming 2012, one year older for me. Sometimes how I want to leave this city to escape these all, to get a job where I can encounter somebody, maybe Guangzhou, Shenzhen etc, after all not here. Yeah I’ll leave here next year. But mostly I feel so happy, my life is made of many happiness and a little sadness.

    Today one of my classmates helped me apply for the examination next year, so I’ll go to Changsha where my college there to take the examination in April. I don’t know where will I be then, maybe in Guangzhou I think. Anywhere, what can I do tomorrow or at night, I can shopping online, to buy the beautiful clothes, shoes, etc. or watch TV or buy something to eat outside. And life are telling me, I should improve myself all the time and enjoy my life, by the way, wait for his coming to be my side, come on!
  • What’s happiness, from brother

    2011-12-12 15:08:06

    Days ago, my brother called me, I was surfing on the internet, when looking at the coming call, I feel surprised, that’s brother, my third brother who is working on securities to help company listed on stock exchange. Why call me? anything happened? The reason why I just think about so it's he seldom call me.

    Anywhere I felt so happy! My brother Camel (I think it’s his English name) was on a business trip in Changsha where my college locates, when he drove his car near my college he called me and aksed me whether my college there, i answered yes and told him how to go to my college. Even my college is not a brand university, I love it so much, because it helped me to spend a happly student life there, pure and beautiful, I think everybody like me can feel so many nice memories taken for them. And that’s my brother who paid the tuition fees for me, he started working in 2007 as he graduated as a postgraduate student when I began my college, except the tuition feel in the first year from my old father, he born all my remain expenses in the later three years.

    Such well-fed and well-clothed life gave me a gratitude heart to him and my family, and this college also taught me how to be myself, even only three years, it became the part of life.

    What’s happiness? It’s a call from my brother; it’s a call from friends or relatives on my birthday, it’s getting a nice goods from online shopping; it’s a “goodnight” from someone you care for.

  • My life have gone back to one year ago

    2011-07-02 16:15:55

    As somebody have walked out of my life, nearly half a year with someone and ended within my expectation.

    One year ago, we tore apart, with him who i encountered in my college, i suffered the sadness and painess from depart with him. i know clearly that whom are the best love of mine until now. The pure love happened in college always can give us the beautiful memory, such as the first love with him.

    I remember clearly that the day after i sent the messege to tell somebody it's time to ends that relationship. the power was cut off, no need to work that day, which gave me the chance and space to cry alone, i stayed at room to cry. You know, how i want to work to occupy all my time in case of the tiem for crying. While, i cried and during that three days i cired for my bad love affairs.

    How badly i experienced this bad affair with somebody.

    Now i suffered the same painess again.

    Anywhere, We would have our own family in the future.

  • Somebody walked out of my life

    2011-06-10 16:13:50

    Now electricity in company is cut off, so one day for rest while i hated that so much. People would like to enjoy this holiday because of electricity-cutting, while i am not. Somebody disappeared in my life from last night.

    I called my good friend in Guangzhou and told her this, "our company's power was cut,we have one day for rest, how much i hate this". "you are crazy, one-day rest is not a bad thing." I tell her nothing about somebody and me.She didn't know that how i need working today to protect myself from thinking about my bad love affairs.

    How badly i experienced in 2011 in aspect of emotional life.

    Last night as somebody let me down again, i finally decided to end this all. To pull all contact methods into the blacklist: Mobile phone, QQ, Blog, MSN. Then closed my mobile phone to help my friend translate the abstract of thesis for graduation, i need this. It's the next day then, eyes got painful, i went to bed, and thought about all things having happened this half year, only i made a wrong decision at the beginning then made myself suffered so much, in the end, i got nothing. Everybody have thought that i got cheated, even myself as well. How failed i feel! Tears came out from my ears, floating my face then down to my pillow.

    Now i enjoy the time that leave me alone, so noisy outside from the electric generator. When i writng down this, tears still run around in my eyes, be falling down at any time. I enjoy my work, but i did a so bad performance on my love affairs. In this annoying city, i encountered the wrong person at this wrong place. I hate here!
  • (双语)想当灰姑娘?7步教你搞定王子

    2011-05-25 16:51:42

    Want to marry a prince? 7 steps to find your royal
    想嫁给王子吗?寻找王子七步法

    (Reuters) - Want to follow in Kate Middleton`s footsteps and marry a prince?
    路透社 - 想跟凯特一样嫁给王子吗?

    Well forget kissing frogs and try playing tennis or putting your party shoes on.
    首先忘记亲吻青蛙或者打网球或者穿上舞鞋这些童话故事吧。

    Social network site Badoo (www.badoo.com) has come up with the "Seven Golden Rules" on how to find a prince, after conducting a study of 107 royal romances since World War II.
    在研究了二战以来的107个王室爱情故事之后,社交网站Badoo总结出了找到王子的“七大黄金法则”。

    It said the best strategy is to work in the media or showbusiness, attend university -- ideally Cambridge, think sporty -- ideally tennis, get your party shoes on and target Europe, namely Monaco or Scandinavia.
    据他们说最好的办法是从业于媒体或者演艺界,进入名校-最好是剑桥,多参加运动-最好是网球,多参加聚会,还有以欧洲为目标,比如摩纳哥和北欧。

    "Until now, the only known strategy for meeting a prince has been to kiss lots of frogs," Lloyd Price, director of marketing at Badoo said. "We have produced the first practical strategy based on analysis of hard data."
    “之前我们只知道要见王子就只能亲吻无数青蛙。”Badoo的市场总监Lloyd Price这样说,“而我们推出了第一个基于数据分析的的实用性指南。”

    As Middleton met Britain`s Prince William while studying at St Andrews university, Badoo said university was the "new royal marriage market."
    正如凯特跟未来王子是在一同就读于圣安德鲁斯大学时相识的,Badoo认为大学是“新兴王室婚姻市场”。

    "Target a top university, since princes are more likely to attend one. Best of all, target Cambridge, the only university in Badoo`s study to produce two royal romances," it said.
    “以顶尖大学为目标,因为王子一般都会去名校。最佳选择是剑桥。在我们的研究中,这是唯一见证了两次皇家罗曼史的大学”

    European princes are far more likely to romance both commoners and foreigners than are princes elsewhere, Badoo said.
    跟别的地方的王子比,欧洲王子更容易跟平民还有外国人结下良缘,Badoo称。

    "Only 6 percent of the European princes in Badoo`s study romanced women who were fellow royals, compared to 26 percent of princes globally."
    Badoo的研究显示,只有6%的欧洲王子跟同是王室后裔的女子结合了,而全球这一比例则是26%。”

    Parties are also key for finding a future royal spouse.
    聚会也是找到你未来王室丈夫的重要场所。

    "Parties are the new frogs. The more you attend, the better your odds of meeting a prince," it said. "Of course, all parties are not equal. The best are those thrown by mutual friends."
    “聚会是新的青蛙。你去得越多,就越有可能遇到王子。”它说,“当然,不是所有聚会都是一样重要。最好是那些由共同的朋友主办的。”

    You can also find your prince through sports: "Either playing or attending sport is a good way to meet princes, especially European ones.
    还可以从运动场上找到王子:“不管是参与还是观看运动都是一个遇到王子,特别是那些欧洲王子的好办法。”

    "But some sports -- like polo, swimming or, best of all, tennis -- offer better prospects than others, such as, say, beach volleyball or darts."
    “不过有些运动明显好于其他,比如马球、游泳或者最好的选择:网球,就会比别的那些,比如沙滩排球或者飞镖来的好。”

    You need not worry about not having royal blood -- some 71 percent of the women who romanced European princes were commoners rather than royals or aristocrats, Badoo said.
    也不用担心自己没有王室背景。有跟欧洲王子谱下恋曲的女性中大约71%都是平民,而非王室或贵族后裔。

    "What`s more, there are more princes to go round than you think. There are still over 30 reigning royal families worldwide, plus assorted European aristocrats and ex-royals still entitled to call themselves `prince`," it said.
    “而且,事实上王子的数量要比你想象中的多得多。目前全球依然有30多个在位的王室家族,而且各类欧洲贵族以及前王室成员也都可以说是王子。”

  • Something about love (跟爱情有关)

    2011-05-10 21:27:22

    Now i'm sitting on the sofa, watching TV, above my leg, is my lap computer, i'm writing a dairy about something happened today. The name of the program is Thanksgiving for our country about the 5.12 Earthquake in Sichuan, China happened 3 years ago. I remember clearly that the time when this horrible earthquake carried great disaster to Sichuan people, we were studying in college also suffered the fearlessness of its spreading. 

    During working in the morning, i dialed a number related about the trade show of our company, while i listened to the phone ring, something very familiar for me, i thought over the song, suddenly, i remembered that it's a phone ring of his cell phone when we were in Changsha, a city in my hometown. I listened, and felt sad, tears were going to run out of my eyes, then the phone got through```

    Over one year past, everything goes well, i did not a very good performance on my love affairs. We had broken apart for more than one year, now somebody slip out of this affair we had ran together. Somebody transformed his attention from me to others. I prefer to receive that, because he will has his own family, as well as me.

    While for me, why i am always thinking about the past, yesterday has gone, today i'm not fine, tomorrow is what i should pay attention, because i'll spend the rest of my life there.

    When and how can i encounter the Mr. Right in my life. Should i change my working environment? Maybe i should leave for another city. 

    I just want to write down my feelings, as the truth before me, i would like to receive it with gratitude. I should feel happy and receive all the things before me, because everything has its solution, people can find the way.

     

    时间过的很快,转眼一年过去了今天打了个跟公司展会有关的电话,电话里传来的铃声让我感觉有些熟悉而紧张,寻思着,正是这个彩铃曾经让自己感到幸福过,心跳过,正是这个彩铃伴随我们度过了一段快乐美好的时光,只是那段快乐时光已经一去不复返,想想自己现在的处境,突然有种想哭的冲动,泪水就快要夺眶而出,那边电话通了······

  • 女人该怎样和男人谈钱(How to talk about money with man)

    2011-05-09 11:56:41

    杨:
    丽:
    杨:
    丽:
    杨:
    丽:
    杨:
    丽:
    杨:
    丽:
  • 谨慎对待尼日利亚客户—发送邀请函

    2011-04-18 09:42:21

    目前,尼日利亚的客人不一定能到我们中国的,也就是说,发邀请函还是需要一定的条件。比如说,那个尼日利亚客人有没有跟你们合作过的,如果没有比较好的合作基础,邀请函是办不到的。这个你可以打电话问当地的外办的,你们没有跟那个尼日利亚客人合作,邀请函是发不出去的。
      另外,提供一些资料给你参考一下,是我跟那个尼日利亚客人联系时查的,希望对你有所帮助。
      经外交部授权,宁波市外事办公室为我市办理外国人来华签证审批及核发签证通知的机构。
      受理材料:
      1、呈报表;
      2、每位来访人员的护照复印件;
      3、半年多次往来签证须提供以往多次来华签证复印件;
      4、一年多次往来签证应是外资企业外方高层管理人员或技术人员,须提供外商投资企业批准证书复印件和企业法人代表营业执照;
      5、工作签证须另外提供市教育局的批复或劳动就业局颁发的《外国人就业许可证书》;
      6、巴基斯坦、伊朗、阿富汗、斯里兰卡、尼日利亚和伊拉克六国公民来华访问目前只办理短期签证。巴基斯坦、伊朗、阿富汗、斯里兰卡、尼日利亚和伊拉克六国公民办理来华邀请函除呈报表、护照复印件外,还需提供以往入境的签证页和入境章复印件、行程安排、担保函、与邀请单位业务往来单证的复印件和邀请公司营业执照复印件;
      7、巴基斯坦、伊朗、阿富汗、斯里兰卡、尼日利亚和伊拉克六国公民办理签证延期除呈报表、护照复印件外,还需提供本次入境的签证页和入境章复印件、与邀请单位业务往来单证的复印件、行程安排和担保函。
      8、尼日利亚公民办理来华邀请函除上述规定外,还需提供尼日利亚被邀请方公司的营业执照复印件、与邀请单位业务往来单证的复印件。
      9、所有材料请用A4纸,请勿使用钉书针和传真纸。

    自己接触外贸近一年了。也收到过很多尼日利亚客人的询盘,刚做外贸不久就有收到尼日利亚客人需要办签证的邮件,当时跟经理说了这个问题,她说这种很可能是骗子,加上自己在外贸网站得知这种案例尤其多。下面是一些外贸人士对待尼日利亚人的例子:(希望对大家有用)

    昨天接到广州一个尼日利亚人的电话,要求我们公司提供邀请函和政府的外经委的批复函,一下子要来10个人,而且只考察我们一家公司却要逗留20天,今天还把他们代表的护照复印件也传给我了。我怀疑其中有诈,就上网搜集尼日利亚的信息。据此,我回复如下:
    Dear MR ....,
    How are u?
    First thing,i'd like to say 20 days staying in China is too long for the government provide the guarantee.Because in the period of Canton Fair,there are lots of Nigerians who get together in a group appear in Guangzhou city,and some of them defrauds the suppliers' money,some of them heist the citizens,its result a bad influnce.
    So the government increase the investigation of the invitation for the Nigerians especially this period,the permit staying days also limited in 7 days longer.And the company who send the invitation must sign a guarantee for the customers' fees and safety and their behavīor conform to our law.
    Then i think the time isn't the most important thing,we must make clear about your customers' real identity.Our goverment rule is that,the invation of your company for the abroad customers must be reach one year of business relationship,or must show the business license copies of your customers' company.So i need your help to get the copies.
    Hope u could understand me,my friend.
    yours sincerely,
    Mr .......
    Export Dpt
    2005-5-18
          呵呵,不知道他会有什么反应。欢迎大家讨论。
    相关讨论:(回帖如下)
    1.请注意:发邀请函要去贸促会盖章的,贸促会会要求你出具一张担保函,担保你邀请的客户在中国不做什么见不得人的东东的,否则,嘿嘿................嘿嘿....
    2.本人就被骗了一次,提醒大家注意! 尼日利亚!
    先让你提供P/I  然后说要来几个人,然后提供给你真的营业执照COPY  护照COPY
    然后去外事办盖章 人民币100+  加上快件费 100+
    一共人民币300不到, 都是骗签证的。以后就没消息了。
    哎 这年头 骗签证的什么都有 做出口生意倒是从没上当过,没想到在这里栽了个跟头 提醒大家注意非洲的 骗签证 行为。
    3.我有时候在广州机场接客户,看到很多非洲黑人,三五人一伙或七八人一伙。客户看到后很惊异,告诉我:在他们国家(发达国家),非洲黑人是很难办得到签证的,我问为什么。客户一笑,说他们的骗子太多,特别是尼日利亚的,所以他们的国家就开始限制了。后来我又听说在广交会期间(以前的广交会)经常有黑人团伙骗钱骗物,甚至还直接去抢。还有一个更搞笑的是居然去银行搞诈骗!
    我问过我的尼日利亚朋友,他们告诉我这是一种非常普通的做法。这些骗子先想方设法弄到签证然后再几个人结成一伙来诈骗。毕竟现在的中国对他们来说就是遍地黄金呀。
    所以说,他获到了你的邀请函实际上对他来说就是相当于捡到一张进入黄金国的门票了。
    4.尼日利亚的骗子实在是太多了,该国政府对进口管制相当严,原因之一是他们自身的产
    品竞争力实在是太弱。同他们还是可以做生意的,不过要相当小心。
    5.邀请函可以给他,不裹写清楚公司只是邀请他来中国商务访问,有关费用和其他条件等,还有他在中国的安全,行为都和你们公司无关即可.
    关于付款方式,尼日利亚的确盛行这种付款方式,你可以叫他来中国,把现款给你们,不过我想你们的退税就没有了,所以最好的办法就是付款时直接去银行存付,当场交割.
    6.我的情况和你的太相似了,:我也刚刚碰到一个尼日利亚的客户,也要我们发邀请函,而且我已经办好了,还在办的时候写了担保书按时回国,不触犯法律,不过写了费用自理,因为不写担保书办不出邀请函,正在犹豫要不要寄过去,请问您后来怎么样了?各位有经验的人请多多指点,谢谢了
    7.尼日利亚的海关会和进口商串通起来把货骗走,所以你要是真的做生意的话,一定要出厂之前就把所有的货款收全
    8.Nigeria?0.5%是商人,99.5%是伤人!
    他们的手法简单,十几年如一日,无非是诱饵叫人欲罢不能。
    99.5%的人是不屑一顾,可能有0.5%的人是初生牛犊不怕虎。现在企业都可以做进出口,蹚着险滩过河的人有的是。这些“经典”故事从80年代以来就时有重现,要不然这些骗子早就饿死了!中国外贸的高速发展也有副产品--养活了尼日利亚骗子。
    9.我们公司从来不发邀请信给新客人(我们公司的客户全是尼日利亚的),而且如果真的是现金交易的话,真得要拿到银行去存付,假钞的可能性太大了!我本人也这样操作过!
    尼日利亚骗子是多,可是真正做生意的人也还是挺多的!
    10.关于支票,请大家千万注意:一般是光票!到帐后一个月内,签发人都有追索权。也就是说,你看了支票,到了帐,发了货,ok,没多久,客户就会发个函给银行,找个理由,钱就又被划走了。你还要承担相应的手续费和汇兑损益。亲历。警惕!
    11.各位帮帮忙.尼日利亚客户答应汇USD100以做办邀请信之用,可以给他办了吧.而且通过邮件了解,此客户还算了解我们这一行的行情.没有叫我寄样品,没说要投资多少,就说要来看厂,并带样品过来.大家看此人骗签证的可能性多大?还有,我听说广州那边不给非洲人办签证.上回我司有个业务员就没办成.是这样的吗? 急!!!在线等.
    12.同志,小心呀!听说尼日利亚的骗子就只是为了骗一点手续费,如你所说的$100.你如开邀请信给他们,你就惨了,他来中国的费用会找你报销,然后,继续骗你要买你的货,然后,。。。骗你过没完。照你说的分析,那是个骗子,他来中国根本不需要邀请信。
    13.要是他来了之后不走了你就为我们国家带来一个祸害了!
    说实在的,只要能搞到外事办的就OK,不过你还可以到贸易促进会,那边交钱办也办得好点
    14.本人认为对待尼日利亚人,不能一棍子打死,并非所有的尼日利亚人都是骗子,他们当中也不乏正当的商人只要我们在业务洽谈中把互惠互利的原则,一定能做成功的。

    这是骗子吗?(尼日利亚的客商)
    我们是陶瓷工艺品的生产厂家,有一尼日利亚的客商,是通过网上找到他并发产品给她的。  陶瓷产品价格等资料报给他后,没有讨价反价就确认价格等资料OK。(价格确实是合理的价格)  接着便需要我们提供官方邀请信给他们办理出国手续。我们了解尼日利亚政府确实需要我方邀请信才能办理出国。  后来客商便提供了他们的护照资料,要我们协助办理我方政府邀请信。  经我们了解办理邀请信比较麻烦,并怀疑客商是否有骗人行为,索向其提出需要500美金的办理费用。  他们今天的回复说可以支付这笔费用。但经他们了解,从他们国家汇款需要很麻烦的申批及耽误太长的时间。希望我们能否先办理,到时候他们来我工厂时,再支付这笔费用。  希望有经验的朋友出一下主意,看这样的情况是否可以相信他们。  不是说相信是否会到工厂后支付500美金,而是是否可以相信其诚意及真实性。

  • Why China Is Unwilling to Revalue the Yuan(为什么中国不愿调整人民币币值)

    2011-04-16 15:36:22

    The following guest post was contributed by Ian Lamont, an MIT Sloan Fellow. He was previously the managing editor of the Industry Standard, and has also researched China’s state-run media and communications policies. 以下游客发表来自伊恩拉,来自MIT史隆管理学院,他先前当任过“行业标准“的编辑,并深入探讨了中国国营媒体及通信政策。

    For years, China has been subject to enormous exte rnal pressure to increase the value of its currency, or let it float on the open market. While doing so might relieve pressure on foreign economies by boosting their exports and reducing trade deficits, it runs counter to Beijing’s domestic priorities, which involve doing everything it can to preserve economic growth and domestic stability, and by extension, its hold on political power.  多年来,中国为了使人民币升值或者能使货币在市场上公开流通一直受到外在巨大压力。但是这样做虽然可以减轻外国经济因为猛增出口和减少赤字带来的压力,也违背了北京国内优先事项,包括在保持经济增长与国内稳定方面以及相关的政权把持。

    All countries exploit the dynamics between their political and economic systems. But China’s situation is exceptional. For three decades, the government of the People’s Republic of China has perpetuated a grand political dream, claiming a single-party political mandate from the Communist ideals espoused by Mao Zedong, while simultaneously drawing power from the capitalist canon. Beijing has been able to pull it off, largely through the promise of spreading wealth and opportunities to even the poorest of villages and maintaining benefits for cadres and workers in state-owned enterprises which cannot easily be absorbed into the capitalist system. A high rate of GDP growth is required year after year to maintain this state of affairs. 所有的国家都会利用经济与政治动态系统,但是中国是个例外。30年来,中国政府制定的宏伟政治梦想永垂不朽,通过了毛泽东的共产主义思想支持下的一党政治任务,同时也借鉴了基本主义的号召力。北京通过很大程度上依靠财富分配的承诺与基本消除最贫困山村差距的机会,保证国有企业干部与工人们间的利益不被基本主义制度所侵袭而圆满完成了这项任务。国家形势的稳定需要国内生产总值保持逐年上升的趋势。

    A sudden change in the value of the Yuan could have the effect of throwing a wrench into the works, potentially setting off a chain reaction of factory closures and layoffs across the interconnected networks that drive China’s export-oriented economy. In the short term, China might be able manipulate legislation, the banking sector, and welfare levers to prop up key industries or regions. But in the long term, it is uncertain if these steps would be enough to preserve social stability or continued loyalty to the Communist Party.  人民币突然变值可能会造成一个扭转的局面,可能会因为一些存在关联关系的工厂倒闭或裁员使得这条反应链断开,从而推动中国导向型出口经济。短期来看,中国可以操纵立法,银行业和福利这条杠杆来支撑关键性产业或地区发展。但是长远来看,这些程序是否能保持社会稳定和人民继续对中国共产党表示忠诚并不确定。

    What sorts of domestic consequences would result from a slight uptick in the value of the Yuan? The currency is now trading at about 6.7 renminbi to the U.S. dollar. At the very least, Chinese exports would become slightly more expensive to foreign buyers. The resulting drop in Chinese exports would put marginal factories out of business and put their workers on the streets. Other companies would shift low-wage manufacturing to countries such as Vietnam and Sri Lanka. In the industrial parks around Shenzhen, the unemployed could be reabsorbed into the local manufacturing economy. In remote interior provinces, where economic institutions are less developed, there would be fewer opportunities, and a corresponding rise in poverty, anti-government feeling, and isolated “mass incidents.” 人民币的轻微升值对国内到底会造成什么样的后果?现在人民币兑美元汇率为6.7。接下来,中国对国外出口货物价格将会稍微提升。中国出口率下降的这种结果将会使一些临近边缘的工厂倒闭而使工人流落街头。有些企业将会让一些低待遇的制造业转向如越南和斯里兰卡这些国家。深圳周围的工业园,失业工人可再次进入当地的制造业经济,在经济体制发展落后的偏远省市因为机会少将会相应地加大贫穷,给人一种反政府的感觉,被孤立称为为“大规模事件”。 But what would happen in the case of extreme economic disruption, prompted by a sharp change in the exchange rate, the currency openly floating on the world market, or some other unforeseen effect of a revaluation? The social and political turmoil unleashed by a sharp, sudden slowdown of the Chinese economy could potentially lead to Tiananmen Square-scale protests, widespread domestic instability, and an exodus of migrants or refugees to neighboring countries and overseas. 但是如果因为汇率变动厉害,货币公开流动在世界市场或者因为人民币升值造成的无法预见的某些影响,这些因素造成的极端经济混乱后,将会造成什么样的局面?由中国经济急遽下降爆发的社会政治纠纷可能会造成诸如天安门广场大抗议,国内大范围不安定以及大批移民和难民向周边国家或海外离去等问题。

    China is not attempting to hide its fears. “Any significant appreciation of the renminbi will erode China’s export competitiveness overnight and impact the livelihood of tens of millions of workers,” notes an editorial authored by the pro-government China Daily and republished in China’s state-run news agency in May. The essay further describes two economic goals: To maintain a target GDP growth of 8 percent per year (a level it has achieved nearly every year for the past two decades) and contain China’s consumer price index (which it tries to keep under 3%)。 中国并不是有意掩盖这种恐慌。“人民币的任何一种显著升值都会在一夜之间侵蚀中国的出口而影响中国十几亿人口的生活。”(源于欧盟各国部长五月发布在中国日报和中国官方期刊上的一篇社论),这篇社论进步一步阐释了两种经济目标:保持国内生产总值以每年8个百分点的速度增长(这个水平在过去20年来基本每年都实现过)和保持中国居民消费指数(试图保持在3%以内)。

    Additional factors may influence China’s currency policy in the short term. One concern is foreign policy, such as relations with key trading partners. Another is nationalist sentiment, which the Communist government has manipulated to support its own hold on power. Economic injustices inflicted by foreign powers on China in the 19th and early 20th centuries — such as the treaty ports system — still play a role in China’s nationalist propaganda. These humiliations require the current generation of Chinese leaders to tread carefully around policy changes that could be viewed as kowtowing to foreign demands.此外在短期内还有一些因素影响着中国货币政策。一个是外交政策,比如与重要贸易伙伴们的关系。另一个是民族主义情绪,中国政府已经操纵来支撑自己手中握着的权利。在19世纪和20世纪时期外国列强使中国遭受的经济不公正待遇——比如通商口岸体系——仍然影响着中国民族主义的宣传。这些耻辱正需要中国当代领导人围绕方针变动随机应变才能看到国外对中国的需求低头哈腰的场面。

    So, for foreign governments, companies, and labor groups expecting China to allow its currency to appreciate, there may be no significant movement until China’s back is truly against the wall — or the leadership in Beijing can find a face-saving way to convincingly portray a revaluation as an advance demanded by its people, as opposed to a policy shift dictated by foreigners. In addition, China’s trading partners need to be aware that a change in the value of the Yuan will not by itself erase their trade deficits or reduce their dependence on cheap manufactured goods from abroad. Such a shift may even lead to problems that have long-lasting implications for China’s people and the global economy. 所以,对外国政府,企业和劳动团体希望中国允许人民币升值,这里或许没什么明显动机,直到中国真正回头来面对目前的问题——或者北京领导阶层找到了一个顾全体面的方式来有利说服人民币升值正是人们需求的超前需求,是国外对此方针转变口头上的反对。此外,中国的贸易伙伴们需要意识到人民币值的改变不会因此消除贸易逆差或者对国外廉价进口产品的依赖减少。这样一个转变甚至可能会导致中国人民与世界经济体长期利益问题的出现。

  • 准备人事部三(二)级笔译考试

    2011-04-15 09:22:39

    1.   

    三笔是大三的考试,英语专业和非英语专业都可以考虑在大三时经受三笔的锻炼。

    2.   

    三笔的对象主要是非英语专业;英语专业应该以二笔为最终目标。

    3.   

    非英语专业:大一过4级,大二过6级,大三大四过三笔,增加简历含金量就够了,不必考虑二笔。

    4.   

    英语专业:大二过专4,大四过专8,毕业争取考上研究生。大三是空挡,可以用3笔督促自己学习;但专8证书高过3笔,所以可以在大四毕业后争取考2笔。学历证书永远大于社会证书,所以硕士比2笔重要。

    5.   

    三笔难度:上午综合两小时-词汇、语法、阅读、完形,难度4-6级之间,无听力考试。下午实务三小时-英译汉1篇,60分;汉译英1篇,40分,可带两本大字典。我对三笔总难度的定位是非专业5级。

    6.   

    二笔难度:上午综合两小时-词汇、语法、阅读、完形,难度是专8减去听力。下午实务三小时-英译汉2篇,60分;汉译英2篇,40分,可带两本大字典,与三笔实务难度无区别,只是量大,要求速度更快。我对二笔总难度的定位是专业8级上下。

    7.   

    决定考试了,先买真题,三级和二级都有各自的真题汇编,收录了2003年12月,2004年5月和11月,2005年5月共4套真题。自己做后三套的综合部分,因为03年那题有点过时了。综合部分都是客观题,然后对答案。三套平均分在80分以上,可以半年后考;70-80之间,可以一年后考;60-70之间,一年半后;60以下,准备时间需要更长。

    8.   

    所谓准备,是准备实务部分,因为大部分缺少翻译的实际经验,也就是翻译的小时积累不够。综合差,也要通过练实务带动,光做综合题也没用。所以,人事部的综合练习册可以不买。

    9.   

    接下来是买书。

    10.               

    三级和二级都有实务教材,各两本,一本叫《指定教材》,一本叫《辅导教材》,先练指定,后练辅导。《指定》文章更长,难度更大,但选材与考试接近;《辅导》短些,简单些,但与考试的联系稍远。

    此为更重要的《指定教材》

    11.               

    买字典。水平很高的同学,字典大小不是太大的问题,最好用双解,唯一的问题是双解收词在8万左右,缺少更细致的人名地名等专有名词;和汉英字典例句少或者过时。水平一般的同学,在字典选择上需要更认真,经过几届学生的反馈,最好的是《英汉大词典》二版,上海译文,228元;《新世纪汉英大词典》,外研社,99元。

    12.               

    每周2-3次,可以按照实务考试的模式,按照3个小时的时间,放好两本字典,准备好签字笔,在几张A4纸上练习。这是绝对模拟考试的练习。做完后和答案比照。

    13.               

    英译汉求意思大体正确,用词不必拘泥于细枝末节,理解重于表达。汉译英力争在句子结构和用词方面和答案尽量接近,尤其避免主谓不一致,动词时态错和名词的冠词错误。

    14.               

    对于与答案差异较大又不明白为什么的同学,可以考虑上培训班,让老师带一带。人事部和新东方都有类似的培训班,可以依照自己的爱好选择,学习翻译的实际经验和技巧。

    15.               

    如果一周做两套实务题,半年可以做50套以上了,至少有了150小时以上的积累了。这样就有了考试的基础。让考试成为你的第51套练习,写起来就顺畅多了。翻译的核心是有目的的练,是以语篇为单位,考双语转换,不靠死记硬背。

  • 专业外贸术语的表达

    2011-04-15 09:18:40

    1.支付条件(Terms of payment)

    (1)Our usual way of payment is by confirmed and irrevocable letter of credit available by draft at sight for the full amount of the contracted goods to be established in our favour through a bank acceptable to the sellers.

    (2)For payment,we require 100% value,confirmed and irrevocable letter of credit with partial shipment and transhipment allowed clause,available by draft at sight,payable against surrendering the full set of shipping documents to the negotiating bank here.

    (3)The letter of credit should be established with its clauses in confirmation with the terms and conditions of the contract.

    (4)We usually accept payment by L/C at sight draft or by T/T in advance,but never by C.O.D.

     

    2.催开信用证(Pressing for L/C)

    (1)As the goods against your order No.111 have been ready for shipment for quite some time,it is imperative that you take immediate action to have the covering credit established as soon as possible.

    (2)We repeatedly requested you by faxes to expedite the opening of the relative letter of credit so that we might effect shipment for the above mentioned order,but after the lapse of 3 months,we have not yet received the covering L/C.

    (3)We hope that you will take commercial reputation into account in all seriousness and open L/C at once,otherwise you will be responsible for all the losses arising therefrom.

    (4)The shipment time for your order is approaching,but we have not yet received the covering L/C.Pls do your utmost to expedite the same to reach here before the end of this month so that shipment may be effected without dealy.

    3.修改信用证 (Amendment to L/C)

    (1)Pls amend the foregoing L/C to read piece length in 30 yards instead of 40 yards.

    (2)We would draw your attention to the fact that the construction of our Art.No.3100S is 32X32 78X65 whereas your credit calls for 30X30 78X65.Therefor,you are requested to amend the credit according to the stipulationof the contract.

    (3)Pls extend the shipment date and the validity of your L/C No.111 to the end of Jan. and Feb.15,2006 respectively,and see to it that the amendment adivce will reach us before the end of Dec.2005.

    (4)We have received your L/C No.111 covering the above -mentioned contract.But on checking up its clauses,we find that it calls for shipment to be effected not latter than Nov.10,2005,whereas the contract stipulates shipment Dec.2005.Pls extend the shipment date to the Dec.15th 2005 and validity to the 31st of Dec.

  • If time can go back two month ago

    2011-04-14 16:57:22

    When he let me down again and again, at that night, I threw the doll into the garbage can. Before I doing this, I thought about for a while, once I threw it away, doesn’t it mean that I quit someone in my heart. Now I thought that I had made a wrong decision then, if time can back to two month ago, I would have thought more on my affairs.

    Why do I think something so simply, I even don't know how to know a man.

    Yesterday, something related about interests again, I feel something terrible and at this time, I told everything to my colleague, she was disagree with my behavīor and scolded me badly.

    If things need changed, pay attention to the end of this month, I’ m ready to take a driving test.

     

  • Somebody in my heart won't slip away

    2011-04-14 16:53:39

    A two-day rest for me is hard to get. Because I and my colleague can only have one day and it's turn to get Saturday or Sunday for rest every week.

    As my colleague Zeng’s boyfriend had come here, I spared another day for her accompanying with her boyfriend. So this week I have two-day rest.

    Where I will go??  I start to think about this question on Friday evening. I sent a message to my brother and said want to see him, while he replied me that he would not in, whilch also upset me.

    On Saturday morning, I login in QQ to find somebody whether I can go somewhere with them. Then I sent a message to Lau, my exbf in collage. I cherish the feeling for him all the time. This time, If I go there, I will deal with something like relation between us. I think of the memories happened to both of us. So I was also eager to experience the nice memory in collage again with him.

    I spent two days there with him, I felt very happy with him, walking, talking or having a meal, did the same things we did in collage. I also orderd the same food as I ate in collage, almost each time if I have chance to eat outside, I would order the same food: scrambled egg with tomato, scrambled ham with cucumbe.

    But I couldn’t control the scale between us, something should not have happened while happened. On the second day, he saw me off to get on the bus back home, I didn’t want let time go as two buses had passed before us.

    “We are still commen friends as usual.” When Zeng asked me and I replied once I arrived at company.

    How can we be friends as the past one year since we break up. I really want to talk to him, and so happy to be with him, specially taking bus with him. I won't feel sick if he can beside  me on the bus.

    Maybe I shouldn’t have been there, maybe I did something wrong. Yeah, I did many things wrong, when can I be mature to think about things and people.

  • Japan’s Government Likely to Bear Much of the Loss

    2011-03-22 17:32:45

    Japan’s Government Likely to Bear Much of the Loss

    日本政府可能遭受严重损失

    By MARY WILLIAMS WALSH
    Published: March 15, 2011

    Apart from an expected $35 billion in insurance claims from last week’s earthquake, the financial losses in Japan will probably fall most heavily on the Japanese government once it tallies the damage from the tsunami and the nuclear disaster.

    撇开上周因地震所造成的预计$350亿保险赔偿不说,一旦损失符合海啸和核泄漏事故范围,日本政府将极可能承担这次严重财政损失。

    Japanese insurance companies, global insurers and reinsurers, hedge funds and other investors in catastrophe bonds are all expected to bear a portion of the losses that seem likely to exceed $100 billion. Total damage from the 1995 earthquake in Kobe, Japan, was estimated at $100 billion, according to the Insurance Information Institute, but only about $3 billion of that was covered by insurance. 日本保险公司,全球保险业以及再保险人,套利基金和投资在巨灾证券的投资者承当的损失份额将可能超出1000亿美元。根据保险信息机构提供的数据显示发生在1995年的日本神户地震造成的损失计算共达1000亿美元,但是保险公司的赔偿范围只有大概30亿美元。

    The greatest uncertainty surrounds contamination from the nuclear accident prompted by the earthquake and tsunami. 由地震和海啸引起的核事故造成了四周大量的污染物。

    Operators of nuclear plants in Japan are required to buy liability insurance through the Japan Atomic Energy Insurance Pool, an industry group. But they are required to buy coverage of only about $2.2 billion for liabilities, and the pool does not sell the utilities coverage for earthquake damage or business interruptions, suggesting it will again be up to the Japanese government to bear the brunt of those costs. 日本核电站的运作人员规定要买责任保险,通过日本核能保险集团购买,这是个工业集团。但是他们规定只能买22亿美元的责任险覆盖范围,这个集团也不会提供对地震灾害和商业中断造成的损失险种,这也就是说他们还是要看日本政府能否承受这一切损失的正面压力。

    The stocks of some United States life and health insurers with operations in Japan sank on Tuesday, as investors responded to Prime Minister Naoto Kan’s warnings that the risk of radiation exposure had worsened. 在日本运作的一些美国人寿保险股份周二开始下跌,投资方们向Naoto Kan’s 总理反映这种核爆炸的危害已逐步严重化。

    The biggest loser was Aflac, which sells a popular line of cancer insurance in Japan, as well as other life and health coverage. Its stock fell 9.2 percent when the American markets opened Tuesday, before regaining somewhat and closing at $50.89, down 5.58 percent from Monday’s closing price of $53.90. About 75 percent of Aflac’s revenue came from Japan last year. 最大损失者是美国家庭人寿保险,他们在日本卖出了相当大一部分癌症保险,同时还有人生和健康保险。在周二,美国股市开盘价跌落了9.2个百分点,在稍有所恢复前,收盘价跌到了$50.89,比起周一的收盘价$53.90下降了5.58个百分点,是去年美国家庭人寿保险财政收入的75%

    “The market is looking at everything that’s exposed to Japan, and we’re part of that,” said an Aflac spokeswoman, Laura Kane. She said the company was not expecting a flood of claims and had not changed its financial projections because of the trouble in Japan. “我们将会密切关注日本的一切动态,因为我们是他们的一份子,美国家庭人寿保险发言人劳拉·凯恩说。她说我们不是在等待赔偿灾荒,这对日本的财政困难解决也无济于事。

    Shares of Hartford Financial Services fell 4.55 percent on Tuesday. The shares of MetLife and Prudential Financial, which acquired Japanese life insurance when they bought subsidiaries of the American International Group, fell about 3 percent and 2 percent, respectively. 哈特福德金融服务股份在周二下跌了4.55个百分点。大都会人寿和保德信金融,其股份收购了日本人生保险,当他们买了美国国际集团时分别跌落了3个和2个百分点。

    Business insurers that operate globally, like ACE, Chartis, Allianz and Zurich, have a relatively small toehold in Japan, and therefore small exposure. 全球性经营的商业保险公司比如ACE,美亚,安联和苏黎世在日本因为只站了小小一脚跟,所以曝光点较小。

    About 90 percent of the property and casualty business in Japan is written by three big domestic insurance groups, the MS&AD Insurance Group, the Tokio Marine Group and the NKSJ Group. 大约%90的财产险业务都是由当地三大保险公司:MSAD的保险集团、东京海上集团和NKSJ集团办理的。

    The Japanese insurers jointly own a reinsurer, the Japan Earthquake Reinsurance Company, which in turn is backstopped by the Japanese government. 日本保险公司共同拥有一个再保险公司,而日本地震再保险公司反过来又由日本政府支助。

    “A meaningful portion of the losses will flow to the global reinsurance industry,” said Kenji Kawada, senior analyst for Moody’s Japan K.K. He cited Munich Re, Swiss Re, Scor, Hannover Re, Berkshire Hathaway, PartnerRe and Everest Re as the largest reinsurers and therefore the likeliest to suffer. 损失中将有相当大一部分流向全球的再保险业,日本穆迪株式会社高级分析师Kenji Kawada说,他说慕尼黑再保险公司、瑞士再保险公司、海洋研究科学委员会和汉诺威再保险公司都会因此遭受损失。

    Moody’s said ratings for all of the major reinsurers were stable, and many reinsurance analysts said they saw one bright spot in the disaster: prices for reinsurance have been declining for several years, and while the earthquake will hurt the results of companies for one quarter, it might spur new demand and higher prices. 据穆迪所说的主要再保险公司的评定结果还算稳定,许多再保险业分析师都说在这次地震中他们看到了一个亮点:再保险业这几年的价格一直在下降,然而这次地震将会使企业业绩在这一个季度内连续受怆,这就有可能刺激再保险业新的发展和较高价出售。

    Reinsurance contracts are often renewed in April, and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods issued a report on Tuesday suggesting that losses from the earthquakes in Japan and, recently, New Zealand would lead to firmer prices on California earthquake and Florida hurricane insurance. 再保险业合同在四月份将会一直保持更新, KBW 公司周二发布报告预测日本因地震遭受的损失,新西兰近来将会领导加利福尼亚地震和弗洛里达飓风保险业以一个固定价出售。

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